Wildcard Finals AFL Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

With the 12th-worst percentage in the competition, the Dogs have continually gotten the job done this year, and after handling Melbourne surgically – securing this game has a massive positive.

While you can unfortunately never rule out Collingwood due to their cockroach behaviour of refusing to die, they’ve been decreasing in health the later the season has gone on. The old dogs, Maynard and Pendles are in doubt with injuries, as are Lipinski and Quaynor, and while the youngsters at the back of the list do look promising – they haven’t got enough experience in their belt for this one.

The main issue for Bulldogs is their backline, and coming up against a power forward line would be detrimental. That is not Collingwood. Daicos will still cause severe problems, but Richards and Bont will get the better of the clearances, and they should get the job done.

The resurgence of Carlton needs to be studied. Or Josh Fraser at least. Preferably by Essendon. Down and out at Round 10, and after an incredible back half of the season, they find themselves here – just sneaking into the first Wildcard spot of all time.

Speaking of coaches who know what they are doing – what Steven King has done with the Dees this year after no one expected them to pose any threat is also amazing. It’s definitely the year of former rucks as coaches.

But as much as they’ve both had a good year considering – it all comes down to what they can do on one night. Both teams love playing at the G, but the Dees are out of their safe daylight hours, and their body clock may be a bit warped. Last week as soon as the sun went down in the third quarter, the Dogs started to get the better of them and they never recovered. Now I’m not saying Melbourne is afraid of the dark, but they probably prefer sleeping with the lights on.

Carlton topped off their home-and-away season by topping off the top-of-the-ladder Fremantle, proving again that the Dockers are vulnerable outside of Perth. Both teams play a similar structured brand of footy, with everyone doing their part, but Carlton’s form for the back half of the year is too hard to tip against. I think they’ll sort out Kozzy and the confidence of the Dees will get shattered in the third and there’ll be no coming back.