Who Will Win the 2026 Rising Star?
The race for the 2026 Rising Star award is wide on. Bi-monthly, Jimmy and The Machine share their updated tips and analysis on who they think will take home the Rising Star award.
Rising Star Odds
Always a tough bet at the start of a long gruelling year of football where anything can happen – but I really like the Essendon man child at 26.00.
Robey is a real underdog story – overlooked for the Coates Talent League, but got in the hard way after playing with the big boys in the Eastern Football League. Given the work he has had to put in, and seeing the non-football side of life – he will be very hungry to perform.
Plus, look at the size of him. Many midfielders whilst showing skill, struggle with the big bodies in the AFL in their first year. Robey’s subconscious must also hungry for AFL, turning him into an absolute unit and growing 6 inches in the last 18 months, whilst Willem Duursma is still (and rightfully so for his age) – skin and bones. The advantage to being smaller only a few years ago, Robey would have to be tough to earn his keep. Now his almost key position size – he’s right in the category of Cripps, Bont and Dusty.
One glaring issue is recent back awareness for the big fella, which is expected after turning into the Hulk in two years. However, I have all the confidence in the world that the Essendon high performance team will get his body right. I mean, they are due. Anywho, seeing how there is a direct correlation on Robeys high performance and how elite the standard of game he is in – I look forward to seeing him in 2026.
Willem Duursma is the most likely winner of the 2026 Rising Star because he ticks every box the award historically rewards: elite junior pedigree, immediate AFL readiness, role versatility, and early opportunity. He’s not a speculative upside pick – he’s a “play Round 1 if fit” type. Those players dominate Rising Star voting because they accumulate nominations early and never drop out of the conversation.
Duursma’s biggest edge is how translatable his game is. He doesn’t rely on size, novelty or junk possessions. He reads the play early, uses the ball cleanly by foot, and gets involved in scoring chains – whether off half-back, on a wing, or rotating through the midfield. That versatility matters: clubs trust those players sooner, and Rising Star voters reward players who influence games across multiple phases.
Another key factor is consistency. Rising Star winners aren’t usually the most explosive teenagers – they’re the ones who play 18–22 games at a solid level. Duursma profiles as exactly that: regular 18–24 disposal games, good metres gained, clean efficiency, and enough scoreboard involvement to stay visible. He won’t need to “break out” – he’ll just keep polling.
Context helps too. High-end draftees taken by rebuilding or transitioning clubs are given responsibility early. If Duursma lands at a club like West Coast, North Melbourne, or Hawthorn, he’ll be played through mistakes and allowed to grow in real time. That uninterrupted exposure is almost essential to winning this award.
Historical Rising Star Tips
Keep track of our past Rising Star predictions to see who’s been leading the charge. Here, you can revisit our bi-monthly picks and watch how the race has evolved over this and previous seasons.
Jimmy’s Rising Star Tips 2025
March 2025
Jimmy’s Pick:
Nate Caddy
18.00 at Sportsbet
19/2/2025
I wouldn’t be a typical Essendon supporter if I didn’t show some unrealistic belief in the club. But to be fair, Caddy has shown in many glimpses last year that he has the ability to be an absolute star. Unfortunately, it was often succeeded by a glimpse of absolute gumbiness.
Whether Caddy will end up being the next Nick Reiwoldt or the next Joe Daniher, is up for the scholars to decide. But with a bit more exposure and with Stringer gone, there is every chance he will be Essendon’s number one forward this year.
It is a bit too early to see how the likes of Levi Ashcroft and Jagga Smith will in the big league with the big men – but we already know Caddy has that ability. Just whether he can string it all together, but at those odds, I’m backing him.
May 2025
Jimmy’s Pick:
Archie Roberts
7.00 at Sportsbet
27/5/2025
After selecting Nate Caddy for my early tip back in February, I’ve decided to keep it in the family and go for the other Essendon gun in Archie Roberts.
Archie has slotted in better to Essendon’s defence than McKay. He is giving 100% in every single battle, is averaging 25 disposals a game and just has some dog in him. He isn’t afraid to take the game on, and whilst is making some errors in doing so – they are getting fewer, whilst his numbers are getting higher.
While Levi Ashcroft is a skilful jet, he is looking a lot better in a side like Brisbane – and I can’t go past the Darcy/Reid debacle last year to go for the dead favourite.
Some good signs for the Bombers in the future with 3 rising star nominees already this year, and highly likely to be a fourth if Kako has a long-awaited breakout game.
July 2025
Jimmy’s Pick:
Daniel Curtain
1.50 at Sportsbet
29/7/2025
It’s been a tough one this year as the best youngsters have all had their breakout games – but have also regressed. No one has really stood out consistently in my eyes.
However, after taking some time to find his feet, Curtin has hit a real purple patch of late and the big fella is racking up the touches and covering some ground on the wing. He’s also adding a few goals in there, and there’s a huge chance he’ll be a premiership player – but an integral part of the team.
It is always easier to standout out when your team is doing well, but there is also a lot to like from Curtin and with the big frame and endurance – he’ll be a Bont/Cripps in the making.
The Machine’s Rising Star Tips 2025
March 2025
The Machine’s Pick:
Levi Ashcroft
4.50 at Sportsbet
2/3/2025
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After being the standout pick in the 2024 AFL Draft, Levi Ashcroft is poised to make an immediate impact with the Brisbane Lions. His elite ball-handling skills and football IQ have been on full display during the pre-season, drawing comparisons to some of the game’s greats. With Brisbane’s midfield already stacked, Ashcroft will benefit from learning alongside seasoned players, allowing him to develop rapidly without the pressure of carrying the team.
The Lions’ strong team dynamics and likely finals contention mean Ashcroft will be playing in high-stakes games, further showcasing his talent. While other young guns like Isaac Kako and Sid Draper are also in the mix, Ashcroft’s combination of skill, opportunity, and team support gives him the edge.
May 2025
The Machine’s Pick:
Sam Lalor
34.00 at Sportsbet
27/5/2025
I think Sam Lalor is the best bet to win the 2025 AFL Rising Star, and here’s why.
Sure, Levi Ashcroft plays in a stronger Brisbane side, which helps him get noticed in a stacked midfield. But when I watch him, his impact feels a bit one-dimensional—solid, but not game-changing. Lalor, on the other hand, can do it all. He rotates between midfield and forward, racks up possessions, and kicks goals. That kind of versatility really stands out to me and the umpires.
Then there’s Archie Roberts, who’s tough and reliable in defense. But his role limits how much he can influence the scoreboard or create highlight moments. Lalor’s ability to affect the game across multiple positions gives him more opportunities to impress and consistently contribute.
Overall, Lalor’s steady performances, his adaptability, and the fact he’s doing it all in a competitive Richmond team convince me he’s the Rising Star to beat this year. He might not be the flashy favorite right now, but I think his consistency and impact will carry him through.
July 2025
The Machine’s Pick:
Murphy Reid
5.00 at Sportsbet
29/7/2025
Murphy Reid is my pick for the 2025 Rising Star because he’s had the most impactful debut season by far. He’s already kicked multiple four-goal bags, which is rare for a first-year player, and he’s doing it while contributing across multiple stat categories—tackles, inside 50s, and score involvements. He’s got poise beyond his years and he’s stepped up in both dry and wet conditions, showing versatility that most other Rising Star contenders haven’t. Leigh Montagna and other experts have called him the clear standout, and I agree.
Others like Daniel Curtin and Levi Ashcroft have had solid seasons, but neither has put up the same game-breaking performances. Curtin has been impressive with his flexibility and consistency, while Ashcroft started strong but has cooled slightly. Murphy Reid, though, has shown both the highlights and the match-to-match impact that voters love. He’s winning games off his own boot, and if he finishes the season strongly, the Ron Evans Medal is his to lose.
Stay Updated on the Rising Star Race
As always, the 2026 Rising Star race is bound to be exciting, and we’ll continue to track the progress of the top contenders throughout the season. Be sure to check back every other month to see which young gun our experts are backing to win the award!