AFL Finals Week 1 Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

Fremantle have been the best side all year, and now they get Hawthorn in Perth with a spot in the prelim on the line. The Hawks have been impressive, and they can be dangerous when the game opens up, but this is a very rough assignment.

The Dockers are too strong around the ball, too organised behind it, and at Optus they should be able to squeeze Hawthorn for long enough that the margin eventually opens up.

The Hawks might have been training for Wharfie time, but running around with headphones in is a lot different to 50,000 Fremantle fans who can smell the club’s first flag. Hawthorn will have a crack, but Freo at home in a final should be too much.

Carlton have turned into a completely different side in the back half of the year. What looked dead around mid-season has somehow ended up here, playing Geelong in a final at the G. Annoying for everyone who wrote them off, which was basically everyone.

Geelong are still dangerous, because they are Geelong and finals are usually where they stop being polite. They’ll be hard around the contest, they’ll slow Carlton down when they can, and they won’t make this easy.

But Carlton are too structured and too disciplined to ignore. Last week Melbourne, who are normally cut from the same cloth, were erratic and taking too many pot shots that never had a chance. Carlton managed to hold their nerve and save their momentum for the right moments, instead of mashing sprint like someone playing Xbox with no idea what stamina means.

If the Blues bring that same control again, they can keep rolling.

Sydney at the SCG is always a problem, but Brisbane look like they’re hitting the right part of the season in the right sort of shape. They’ve got finals experience, they’ve got the midfield strength, and they’ve got enough up forward to punish Sydney if the Swans give them repeat looks.

Even if Sydney were at full strength, they’d still be a small chance here. The Lions decide to get into gear at this time of year, and once they do, they could make the All Australian team look like Auskick.

Sydney will make it tight for long stretches because they are too good at home to just roll over. But Brisbane feel the more complete side, and if they match Sydney early, they should have enough class to pull away.

The Dogs have done well to get here, and their midfield gives them a real chance. If Bont and Richards get on top, they can make this very uncomfortable for Adelaide.

The problem is the other end. The Dogs’ backline has more holes than a sieve, and coming up against Thilthorpe, Fogarty and Walker is exactly the type of matchup that can expose it. Walker can always wind the clock back, and if Adelaide start getting clean ball inside 50, it could get ugly quickly.

The Dogs will compete, because they have been doing that all year. But Adelaide at home with that forward mix should be too strong.