Who Will Win the 2026 NRL Premiership
Can Brisbane defend their crown, will the Panthers respond, or will a new contender emerge in September? Throughout the season, Jimmy and The Machine will track the premiership race and break down who looks best placed to lift the trophy.
NRL Premiership Odds
It’s hard to look past the Broncos doubling up, and then we may as well crown Brisbane the sporting capital of the world.
They’ve got the most aggressive attacking line up in the comp – and they’ve got the stats to back it up. Last year, the Broncos had the most for points, tackle breaks and line breaks. Plus, Ezra Mam was off the track for a huge chunk of 2025, so him roaring to go really weighs in their favour.
The Broncos are right in the midst of a maturity window. After a heartbreaking loss back in 2023, they were very humbled in 2024, but came back stronger and with much more poise for a very strong second half of 2025 – which landed as an epic come from behind Grand Final win. That belief is now embedded in their DNA.
Storm will be competitive of course, but after fumbling their chance in the Grand Final last year – they might’ve missed their shot. They have copped an almighty whack in the offseason, not just by losing Papenhuyzen – but also Grant Anderson moving to Broncos (to really rub salt into the wound) for 2026, and Pezet doing the same, but taking the long route to Brisbane and staying via the Eels for 2026.
Penrith Panthers are my early pick to win the 2026 NRL Premiership because, even after falling short in 2025, they remain the competition’s gold standard for systems, development, and big-game execution. Their four straight titles from 2021 to 2024 reset what sustained success looks like in the modern NRL, and one season without a trophy doesn’t suddenly erase that foundation.
At some point, every dynasty ends — but picking the exact year it falls apart is how punters get burned. Penrith’s edge isn’t just talent; it’s repeatability. They lose players, replace them internally, and keep playing the same suffocating brand of finals footy that wins when conditions tighten. Defence travels. Discipline travels. And Penrith still own both.
The biggest reason to stay with them in 2026 is their spine stability and game control. Even when the competition closes the gap athletically, Penrith beat teams between the ears. They don’t chase points early, they don’t panic when momentum swings, and they are brutally efficient once the game is there to be won. Grand Finals are rarely shootouts — they’re arm-wrestles — and Penrith remain the best arm-wrestling side of the era.
There are legitimate reasons people are itching to jump off. Squad turnover continues, the mileage adds up, and every opponent treats them like a Grand Final every week. But history shows Penrith don’t need to dominate the regular season — they just need to arrive in September in form. And across the past half-decade, nobody has proven better at timing their run.
Main challengers
Melbourne Storm
The obvious threat. Elite culture, elite coaching, elite finals IQ. If their spine clicks cleanly at the right time, they’re the one side capable of matching Penrith’s composure on the biggest stage.
Brisbane Broncos
Still in their window. Explosive, dangerous, and capable of blowing teams away. The question isn’t ceiling — it’s whether they can control games when things slow down in finals.
Sydney Roosters
The classic “if it all comes together” team. Talent everywhere, but cohesion and timing are everything in September.
Final call
Premierships aren’t won by the most exciting team — they’re won by the team that makes the fewest mistakes under pressure.
Until someone physically takes it off them, Penrith remain the safest 2026 NRL Grand Final pick.
Stay Updated on the NRL Premiership Contenders
Every second month (or so), we’ll update this page with fresh predictions from Jimmy and The Machine. Follow along as each tipster’s picks evolve throughout the season and see who looks best placed to claim the 2026 NRL Premiership.