Who will Win the 2026 Brownlow Medal?
Is it Nicks turn? Another roughie? Or will The Bont conquer the AFL? Bi-monthly, Jimmy and The Machine will share their thoughts on who they think will win the Brownlow Medal this season.
Brownlow Odds
Always the bridesmaid, never the bride – I think it’s time Nick walks down the aisle.
The last three years, he has been so high in the votes that he would’ve won it nearly almost every other year. And as much as Collingwood will probably suck this year, that works in his favour.
There are very few players in the team that shine as much as Nick, and therefore steal votes. And the books agree with me – while Nick is the dead favourite for the Brownlow, the next favourite Collingwood player is Dan Houston – at 251.
Collingwood have been an annoyingly strong powerhouse for the 3 of the last 4 years, with a bit of a hiccup in 2024 where they finished 9th. However, that year Nick polled 38 votes. He only lost to Patty Cripps’ absurd 45 votes.
As much as Collingwood fans are seething at me saying 2026 won’t be their year – it does mean there’ll be little reason for other team’s to tag your boy. So he’ll clean up in the stats, look good doing it, and Collingwood’s favourite son will bring another trophy home to the KGB centre.
I’m backing Nick Daicos to win the 2026 Brownlow because he already plays like a Brownlow medallist – he just hasn’t got one yet.
We’re past the breakout phase with Daicos. This is the stage where dominance turns into votes. He racks it up, uses it cleanly, and is involved in everything that matters. When Collingwood win, he’s usually the most obvious player on the ground, and that’s what umpires reward.
The big reason I like him in 2026 is continuity. He’s already shown he can poll at the very top end, and players who build that sort of vote ceiling tend to convert sooner rather than later. He doesn’t need a career year – he just needs a full one. If he plays 22 games, being “normal Daicos” is enough.
Collingwood’s midfield balance helps too. With others taking attention, he won’t be hard-tagged every week, and that’s when his games turn from 28 disposals into three votes. His influence is clean, repeatable, and easy to see – perfect Brownlow traits.
There are challengers. Bontempelli is always there. Rowell has proven he can win it, but repeating is hard. Butters and Bailey Smith have the explosive best-on-ground factor.
But on consistency, visibility, and team context, Daicos is still the one.
If the season stays clean, he’s the most likely name read out on the night.
Historical Brownlow Medal Tips
Follow our Brownlow Medal predictions across the season and previous years. See how our thinking evolves — and whether we’re sharp or just hacks.
Jimmy’s Brownlow Medal Tips 2025
March 2025
Jimmy’s Pick:
Isaac Heeney
18.00 at Bet Right
19/2/2025
After last years landslide win for Cripps, I think there’ll be a serious shake up this year with the voters. Not that Crippa didn’t deserve to smash it after carrying the Blues on those overused shoulders, I just think this year there’ll be less emphasis on the in and under midfielders.
Still, the midfielders get a lot of limelight, and none less than Heeney when he is song. He’s more than capable of taking a hanger and does his best work up forward, which is where I’m predicting will get more notice this year, over contested possessions. I’d even throw Jeremy Cameron as a massive smokey.
Surely Sydney are going to have a rocket up them after sh***ing the bed in two of the last three grand finals, and after how much Coxy has been flogging them – and I’m predicting their superstar will shine.
May 2025
Jimmy’s Pick:
Ed Richards
26.00 at Sportsbet
24/5/2025
Ed the big red has been having one hell of a season. Whilst not even in the top 10 for Brownlow favourites, I like him a lot for a dark horse.
With Bont and Treloar missing for a huge chunk of the of the season, Richards and Libba have been doing a stellar job holding down the midfield fort – and would likely be getting noticed by the voters.
While Libba should be having an All-Australian year and is leading in disposals and contested possessions – Ed isn’t too far behind in this, but is also more damaging in front of goals and with opening up the play around the ground.
The Bulldogs aren’t short of players who will be getting votes, including all mentioned plus Darcy, English and Dale to name a few – Richards has been doing a bit of all the midfielder things that attracts the voters, pace, aggression and silk.
With Bont being able to move around the ground wherever he is needed, Richards will keep getting strong opportunities in the guts and will continually be noticed. I can’t see him getting a tonne of 3 votes, but I reckon he’ll collect many 2s.
After last years absurd count, the voters will surely be forcefully looking outside of the big names like Cripps, Daicos and Bont. And let’s face it, Ed sticks out. Richards winning the Brownlow nah be a stretch, but I like him as a dark horse at those massive odds, and once there are top 5, top 10 markets – I’ll get more excited.
July 2025
Jimmy’s Pick:
Nick Daicos
1.62 at Sportsbet
31/7/2025
Nick could go on vacay for the rest of the year, and he’ll still have it wrapped up. And he’s definitely not the type to throw a haymaker and get suspended. He’s had far too many 30+ with multiple goal games that he’ll be collecting 3 votes like stamps. And there’s no one to steal votes off of him, except Josh who would probably only get to around the 15.
Nas was an awesome bet for top 10 two weeks ago, as he was laying around 251 to win the Brownlow. Unfortunately there were no markets for this and after his pretty standard game (30+, 2 goals) against Geelong, he dropped to 80 mark. Now, after his heroics against Melbourne – he’s dropped to 34 and is in the top 10.
Daicos has it sorted, but stay tuned for the week leading up to Charlie and we’ll provide some top 10, 20 dark horses.
The Machine’s Brownlow Medal Tips 2025
March 2025
The Machine’s Pick:
Nick Daicos
4.50 at Sportsbet
2/3/2025
After getting pipped last year despite polling a ridiculous 38 votes, it feels like this is Nick Daicos’ year. The umps already love him—his ball use is elite, he racks up disposals like it’s nothing, and when Collingwood are up and about, he’s the one driving it.
A lot of mids can win plenty of the footy, but Daicos hurts teams with his disposal. He’s got that eye-catching, game-breaking style that makes him a vote magnet, and the Pies should be back in the hunt this season, which only helps his case.
The only real knock? He’s already the favorite, so there’s not a heap of value in backing him. But if you want the safest bet for the Brownlow, Daicos is the guy.
May 2025
The Machine’s Pick:
Bailey Smith
4.50 at Sportsbet
27/5/2025
Bailey Smith’s 2025 season at Geelong has been transformative. After moving from the Bulldogs, he’s become a key part of the Cats’ midfield, combining his trademark running power with improved defensive pressure and cleaner ball use. His well-rounded game now includes high tackle counts and scoreboard impact, making him the kind of player umpires consistently notice.
Smith is hitting peak form at the right time. He’s delivered standout performances in Geelong wins — like his 33-disposal game against the Bulldogs — and regularly features among the best players on the ground. Playing for a high-profile team in marquee games boosts his visibility, especially as other Brownlow contenders face form dips or heavy tagging.
There’s also a strong narrative behind his rise. After a rocky patch in past seasons, Smith’s resurgence as both a player and a leader makes for a compelling Brownlow storyline. With elite output, consistent influence, and a redemption arc that voters love, he’s my pick to take out the 2025 medal.
July 2025
The Machine’s Pick:
Nick Daicos
1.62 at Sportsbet
31/7/2025
I think Nick Daicos will win the 2025 Brownlow Medal because no one matches his week-to-week influence on games. He’s consistently among the top disposal-getters on the field, he uses the ball better than almost anyone in the comp, and he’s polling in games even when Collingwood loses. With the Pies sitting on top of the ladder, Daicos will benefit from the ‘winning team’ bonus that often drives Brownlow counts. His composure under pressure and decision-making are elite, and he’s added layers to his game this year as a midfield leader.
There are solid challengers—Jordan Dawson has been superb for Adelaide, and Bailey Smith has surged into contention late—but Daicos’s consistency and visibility put him in a league of his own. He doesn’t go missing. While others have off-games or fade in stacked midfields, Daicos is always front and centre, always clean, and always influential. He’s got the media hype, the stats, and the narrative momentum to take home Charlie this year.
Stay Updated on the Brownlow Race
Every other month, we’ll update this page with fresh predictions from Jimmy and The Machine. Follow the action, track how each tipster’s picks evolve as the season progresses, and see who comes out on top.
Understanding Brownlow Medal Betting, How the Market Actually Works
The Brownlow Medal is one of the most unique long-form wagering markets in Australian sport. Unlike a premiership bet, where the result is decided on the field in September, the count does not happen until after the season ends, and the winner is determined by votes cast in secret by field umpires after every home-and-away match.
That structure creates specific patterns that Brownlow betting tips need to account for. Understanding how votes actually get distributed is the foundation of any intelligent Brownlow Medal betting approach. It also helps to compare it with other futures markets like our Coleman Medal odds page on the goal-kicking side, because the pricing behaviour is very different.
The Rules That Shape the Race
A few things about how the Brownlow count works directly affect how to bet it:
- Three votes per game. Umpires vote 3-2-1 after every home-and-away match. The winner typically polls somewhere between 28 and 40 votes.
- Suspended players are rubbed out. Any player who receives a suspension during the season becomes ineligible. A player facing MRO scrutiny regularly, even for low-level stuff, is a structural risk in this market.
- Best on ground in a winning team is the formula. The data consistently shows that umpires favour players in winning teams. A dominant display in a loss polls far fewer votes than an equally dominant game on the winning side.
- Midfielders dominate. The Brownlow has been won by a forward or defender so rarely that it is headline news when it happens. High-disposal midfielders at winning clubs are structurally advantaged.
When to Bet the Brownlow, Timing the Market
Pre-season Brownlow tips offer the widest field of odds but the least information. The safer early-season approach is to take a position on a player whose role, team context and physical profile all point towards a high-vote season before Round 1 form data narrows the field and shortens prices.
By mid-season, the market becomes more of a tracking exercise. Independent vote trackers publish estimated tallies after each round, and sharper punters follow this closely. A player accumulating votes at a rate that their market position does not yet reflect is worth backing before the broader market catches up.
Late-season Brownlow Medal predictions are mostly about identifying whether the leader is genuinely safe or vulnerable. Injury, suspension, or a tough run of fixtures can change everything in the final month.
The Dark Horse Angle in Brownlow Betting
Every season has a Brownlow contender who was nowhere near the market’s top five in Round 1. Usually it is a midfielder at a club that performed better than expected, or a player who stepped into a bigger role mid-season and suddenly became the most prominent figure in their side’s best-on-ground performances.
Identifying those players before they become obvious to the broader market is where the real value in Brownlow Medal betting lives. By the time they are consistently appearing in vote trackers and football media, the odds have usually already shortened.
Which Bookmakers to Use for Brownlow Betting
Not all bookmakers offer the same depth on the Brownlow market. For a long-running futures market like this, you want a bookmaker with consistent pricing throughout the season, clear top-10 and top-20 markets, and a track record of keeping Brownlow options competitive deep into the year. If you are weighing up where to place those futures bets, start with our best betting sites in Australia page.
Ladbrokes and Sportsbet typically offer the most comprehensive Brownlow market coverage throughout the season. For our current Brownlow tips, scroll back to the top of this page, then head to AFL expert tips for weekly coverage. You can also find the broader season view at Expert Footy Tips and the rest of our latest footy predictions there too.