Round 24 AFL Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

In this week’s first edition of games that have zero significance, it’s the team that had all the hype before the season against the team that had all the hype at the start of the season. Inspirational stuff. The AFL really does know how to serve dessert after everyone has already left the table.

The Saints did their bit against Richmond, but the wildcard race didn’t need their permission to move on without them. The Carlton and Bulldogs draw made sure of that, leaving this as a pride game dressed up in prime time clothing.

St Kilda are the type to try even in a pointless game like this, but I think some of the star Suns might have their own agenda and use this last opportunity to bump their off-season numbers. Gold Coast have been infuriating, but there is still enough top-end talent there to pinch this.

This will just be a warm up for Brisbane on the big stage, whilst giving the Pies some faux hope they can make their Wildcard Final go much further – for about 2.5 quarters.

Collingwood are already locked into the wildcard round, which gives this game a strange little practice-match smell. The Pies will still want a proper hit-out at the MCG, but there’s a difference between building form and getting dragged into a war one week before an elimination game.

Brisbane, meanwhile, look like they’ve hit the part of the year where they stop mucking around. They dealt with Gold Coast, they’re back into that ugly finals rhythm, and they get the perfect MCG tune-up against a side that may have one eye on next week.

The Pies can hang around, because that’s what they do. Daicos alone makes them annoying enough to keep the thing alive for a while. But Brisbane have more power, more scoring routes, and more reason to keep the foot down.

Carlton got what they needed last week, even if it came in the shape of players celebrating mediocrity. The draw against the Dogs locked them into the wildcard picture, but it didn’t exactly scream “ready to take down the best side in it.”

Fremantle are not coming here needing to make some grand statement. They’ve been sitting at the top end all year because they’ve been the most complete side in the competition, and the Adelaide game was another reminder that they can absorb pressure, reset, and still finish the job.

Would love to see Carlton win this so we can have an epic Wildcard against Collingwood – but after the Blues just got out of jail last week against the Dogs, I can’t see them defeating this monster. Freo’s midfield depth, pressure and overall reliability are on a different level. The Blues will have moments, then the Dockers should squeeze the life out of it.

The Dogs looked sharper than they have in a while against Carlton, which naturally happened while Bont was out, because football enjoys making absolutely no sense. They were cleaner, harder, and for once didn’t look like they were trying to assemble their season using instructions from the wrong box.

That makes this a dangerous one for Melbourne. The Bulldogs can still cause problems when they’re moving the ball with speed, and if Richards gets rolling again, they’re capable of making a top side very uncomfortable.

But Melbourne at the MCG in daylight has been one of the safer reads of the year. They know exactly what they are, they’re building into finals, and with positioning still there to be tightened, this is not a game they can afford to drift through. The Dogs will bite, but the Dees should be too steady.

Geelong don’t need to turn this into a public execution to keep themselves in the top-end hunt, but that has never really stopped them before. If there’s one club that sees a vulnerable side late in the season and treats percentage like a moral obligation, it’s the Cats.

Richmond were poor against St Kilda, and this is a fairly disgusting follow-up assignment. A trip to GMHBA, late in the year, against a Geelong side that has found rhythm again. Lovely. Football does have a cruel little sense of humour.

The Tigers might bring some early effort, because professional athletes tend to object to being embarrassed twice in a row. But Geelong should control territory, overwhelm them through the middle, and eventually make this look like a side preparing for finals against a side preparing for Bali.

Adelaide were good enough for long enough against Fremantle to show they’re still a serious problem, even if they couldn’t finish the job. Back at Adelaide Oval, against a Giants side with nothing left to steal from the wildcard race, this is exactly the sort of game the Crows should be using to sharpen the knives.

GWS are still dangerous because chaos is basically their club identity. Even when the season is slipping away, they can pull out a quarter that makes everyone ask why they didn’t just do that for three months. Normal clubs have form lines. GWS have mood swings.

The Crows should have too much at home. Their forward line is too powerful, their midfield should get enough clean looks, and the Giants are hard to back now that the finals carrot has been yanked away.

This is the second edition of Round 24 games that are completely pointless. Port are done, Essendon are done, and the biggest suspense might be whether the Bombers accidentally do something useful at the worst possible time.

Winning here would be painfully Essendon. One last pointless little burst of competence, just enough to annoy the draft-watchers and make everyone argue over whether it means anything. It won’t, obviously. But that has never stopped Essendon from doing Essendon things.

Port should probably win on talent, but that hasn’t been a sentence worth trusting for most of the year. The Dons at Marvel, in a low-stakes mess, feel capable of pulling out one of those annoying wins that helps nobody, hurts them in the draft and explains nothing.

Sydney get the perfect final-round tune-up: home deck, weaker opponent, finals ahead, and just enough danger to make sure they don’t completely sleepwalk through it. The Swans don’t need fireworks here. They need control, pressure and clean minutes from the players who matter.

North have improved, but they’re still not built to handle a serious Sydney side at the SCG for four quarters. They can compete in patches, and they’ve had enough growth this year to avoid being spoken about like a weekly accident report, which is progress.

But Sydney are simply too polished. They should win the contest game, pin North back, and gradually stretch the margin once the Roos start running out of ways to exit cleanly.

Hawthorn come in off a draw with Collingwood that probably did more good than harm. It gave them a finals-style hit-out, exposed a few things, and still left them with enough control of their season to finish the job against West Coast.

The Eagles at Optus can be annoying for a while, especially if Harley Reid starts doing Harley Reid things and the crowd gets a sniff. But there’s a big difference between making a game energetic and actually having the weapons to stay with Hawthorn.

The Hawks are too quick, too sharp and too well-drilled for this version of West Coast. They’ll want to bank the win, keep their shape, and roll into finals with the engine humming. If they’re serious, this should open up after halftime.