Who will Win the 2026 Coleman Medal?
The 2026 Coleman Medal will hopefully be a bit tighter this year. Bi-monthly, Jimmy and The Machine will share their thoughts on who they think will take home the Coleman Medal this season.
Coleman Odds
In the last few years, Gold Coast have rapidly gone from lol, to fun and dangerous, to genuine contenders — and now scary. Ben King is a pillar of that fear.
With a career high of 71 goals last season and finishing third in the Coleman, King’s end-of-season tally has climbed as Gold Coast have won more games. The Suns finished 7th last year, after ending 13th the season before — where King still finished 5th with a lazy 55 majors.
Now that Gold Coast have entered scary mode, the sky is the limit. The Suns enjoyed arguably the best off-season in the league, adding Christian Petracca and four first-round picks — including picks 2 and 5 thanks to their Academy.
Adding that firepower into a team already on the rise, I can’t see any body part benefiting more than Ben King’s right foot.
Charlie Curnow moving to Sydney turns a strong Coleman case into a frightening one. At Carlton, he won Colemans off chaos — long bombs, repeat entries, and sheer inevitability.
Now he lands at a club whose midfield actually hits targets. Gulden, Warner, Heeney and Blakey lower their eyes and reward separation. That’s the difference between a 65-goal season and a 75+ one.
Coleman medals aren’t won on aesthetics — they’re won on volume. Sydney will give him both volume and quality. Even with elite delivery, Curnow will still kick junk goals, crumb goals and late-game sealers.
There’s no role confusion. He’s the guy. McDonald and Amartey become matchup problems, not competitors. If teams double him, Sydney bleed them elsewhere. If they don’t, he kicks bags.
If he stays upright, this is a “don’t overthink it” Coleman season. New jumper. Same outcome — maybe bigger.
Historical Coleman Medal Tips
Follow our Coleman Medal predictions across the season and previous years. See how our thinking evolves — and whether we’re sharp or just hacks.
Jimmy’s Coleman Medal Tips 2025
March 2025
Jimmy’s Pick:
Josh Treacy
21.00 at Bet Right
18/2/2025
Straight off the bat, I’m going for a somewhat roughie to make a big impact in the West this year. The Big Cohuna was really coming into his own last year, and averaged 3 goals per game in his last 5 games, before missing out on the last 3 due to injury – which coincided directly with the Dockers slide out of the finals.
Freo have picked up some serious talent this year in speedster Shai Bolton, and after last years disappointing run home, they’ll be firing out of the gates to make a big impact. Treacy is only 22 years young, and really starting to blossom as a tall forward, as he boasted the highest goal kicking accuracy (71.4%) out of the top 10 goal kickers last year. I’m predicting this is the year he really stands out with a Coleman, All-Australian, and also I’m tipping Finalsmantle to have a solid crack.
Key Stats:
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- 71.4% Goal kicking accuracy (2025)
- 2.3 Average Goals per game
May 2025
Jimmy’s Pick:
Jeremy Cameron
3.75 at Sportsbet
24/5/2025
I have completely bottled this by leaving it too late. I expected a small game from Jez against the Bulldogs and for Ben King to have a day out against St Kilda, and extend the odds – the former did not happen.
From an overall perspective, I don’t normally like Jezza for goals because he doesn’t seem like he cares that much for kicking them. He more seems like he wants to play wherever he (thinks) is needed, and he just naturally dominates when the big sticks are involved.
Anywho, Geelong are an absolute cannon this year (and every year), and like all good cannons, will be destroying everything in their path.
In said path to the end of the season, includes playing Essendon and Richmond twice, West Coast, North and St Kilda. That is 7 out of 12 almost definite wins, and therefore opportunities for Cameron to kick a bag.
They by far have the easiest run home compared to other teams with Coleman contenders (Adelaide, GWS, Gold Coast and Saints). I would put them as a lock for top 4, and Jezza adding a second Coleman to his trophy cabinet.
July 2025
Jimmy’s Pick:
Jeremy Cameron
1.005 at Sportsbet
31/7/2025
The only question at this point is how much Jezza will win by. With 21 goals in the clear (at Round 21), he would have to kick nothing for the rest of the year – and Georgiades would need to kick 2x bags of 5, and 2x bags of 6.
At 32 years old the big man shows no signs of slowing down and with Port, Essendon, Sydney and Richmond left – the 100 is imminent.
The Machine’s Coleman Medal Tips 2025
March 2025
The Machine’s Pick:
Jesse Hogan
6.00 at Sportsbet
2/3/2025
After clinching the Coleman Medal last year with a dominant 69-goal season, Jesse Hogan is primed to defend his title in 2025. His strong marking ability and accurate kicking make him a constant threat inside 50, and with the GWS Giants boasting a potent forward line, Hogan is set to capitalize on increased scoring opportunities.
The Giants’ offensive prowess, combined with Hogan’s form, positions him well for back-to-back Coleman Medals. His experience and consistency are invaluable assets to GWS’s attacking strategy.
May 2025
The Machine’s Pick:
Jesse Hogan
4.00 at Sportsbet
27/5/2025
Hogan has been in exceptional form this season, consistently delivering strong performances in the forward line. His ability to read the play and position himself effectively has resulted in a steady accumulation of goals. Moreover, his experience and physical presence make him a constant threat to opposing defenses.
Looking ahead, the Giants have a relatively favorable fixture list, with several matches against lower-ranked teams. These games present opportunities for Hogan to capitalize and increase his goal tally. Additionally, the Giants’ midfield has been providing quality service, ensuring Hogan receives ample scoring opportunities.
While other contenders like Ben King and Jack Higgins are also in the mix, Hogan’s combination of form, experience, and upcoming fixtures gives him a slight edge in the race for the Coleman Medal.
July 2025
The Machine’s Pick:
Jeremy Cameron
1.005 at Sportsbet
31/7/2025
I think Jeremy Cameron will win the Coleman Medal because he’s in vintage form and comfortably leading the goalkicking tally. He’s already cracked 48 goals from 15 games and is pulling away with multiple six- and seven-goal performances. His ability to blow games open in short bursts is unmatched, and Geelong’s game plan is structured around getting him the ball in space. When he’s on, he’s nearly impossible to stop—his movement, accuracy, and contested marking set him apart from the pack.
Jesse Hogan and Ben King are doing great work and could still challenge, but they don’t quite have the same explosiveness or consistency. Hogan is a solid threat but doesn’t deliver big bags often enough, while King is a bit more streaky. Cameron, on the other hand, is in a groove and has shown across his career that when he’s leading the count late in the year, he usually finishes the job. With Geelong pushing for finals and scoring freely, the Coleman is his to lose.
Stay Updated on the Coleman Medal Race
The 2026 Coleman Medal race is sure to be intense, and our experts will continue to provide updated tips and analysis bi-monthly. Follow the race and stay tuned for the latest predictions from Jimmy, Joel, and The Machine.
How to Actually Bet the Coleman Medal, Beyond Just Picking a Forward
The Coleman Medal is the AFL’s simplest market on the surface, who kicks the most goals, and one of the messiest to navigate in practice. A single injury, a tactical shift, or three weeks of bad delivery from a struggling midfield can flip the race completely. Getting Coleman Medal betting right means understanding not just who is best, but when to get on, when to hold, and which factors the market still underweights. If you are betting season-long AFL futures, it also helps to compare it with the way the Brownlow betting tips market moves, because the two react very differently to form and media attention.
The Mechanics of Coleman Medal Odds
Coleman Medal odds are set before the season based on projected goal tallies, forward roles, and team context, then repriced constantly as the year unfolds. The biggest market moves usually happen at the same points.
- After the first two or three rounds. A forward who starts hot will shorten dramatically. The market often overreacts to tiny early samples, which can leave proven forwards at better prices than their underlying quality deserves.
- When a key rival gets injured. Nothing reshapes this market faster than one of the top contenders missing serious time.
- Around the mid-season bye. Once the field narrows, markets tend to tighten around two or three players and the true dark-horse window starts closing.
- When a forward goes on a streak. A few big bags in a row bring media attention, and the price can shorten quickly, sometimes beyond the player’s true chance.
The AFL Coleman Medal Odds, Best Value Pre-Season vs Mid-Season
Pre-season AFL Coleman Medal odds on genuine contenders are usually their best price of the season. Once one of those key forwards kicks a few big bags in the opening month, the number is gone. If you have done the pre-season work and believe a player has the right role, team support, and delivery, that is generally the time to get involved.
Mid-season value usually sits with players who started slowly because of injury, a tough fixture, or a poor team run, but still hold the right role at a club capable of generating chances. The market does not wait long once they start firing again, so the window is often small.
What Drives a Forward’s Goal Tally Beyond Personal Form
Individual talent matters, obviously, but it is nowhere near the whole story. The factors that most reliably shape a forward’s scoring output are usually team-driven.
- Inside-50 rate. A forward at a side generating 60 inside-50s a game is structurally better placed than one playing in a team barely getting enough supply.
- Quality of delivery. A marking forward with clean entries coming in low and direct is in a completely different situation to one dealing with blind bombs all day.
- Tagging attention. Once the race tightens, the best forwards draw extra defensive attention. Some cope with that far better than others.
- Home and away split. Many forwards kick better on their home deck. A favourable draw can be a quiet edge the market does not always fully price in.
Staying Across the Race All Season
The Coleman race rarely looks the same in Round 22 as it did in Round 1. Our team tracks it bi-monthly and updates the picks as the season develops, so whether you are looking to get on early or find mid-season value, scroll back to the top of this page for the current read.
For the weekly round-by-round context, check our AFL tips hub first. If you are also deciding where to place those futures bets, our shortlist of top betting sites is worth a look. Then head back to Expert Footy Tips for the wider season view and the latest picks across every code.