Round 23 AFL Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

The Dockers will bounce back in the safety of Perth, and they’d take the humbling last week as some much-needed experience at the G. Getting dragged into Melbourne’s mudpit is not exactly pleasant, but it’s the kind of lesson they probably needed before September starts trying to steal their lunch money.

Adelaide are still dangerous, and they’ve got enough forward punch to make this properly uncomfortable. The Crows have spent the last month reminding everyone they can still score in a hurry, which is annoying behaviour from a team most people had already filed under “good, but maybe not good enough.”

Still, Freo at Optus is a different beast. They’ll want to re-establish control, get their midfield game back humming, and remind everyone why they’ve been sitting at the grown-ups table all year.

The Saints’ campaign pretty much went down the toilet last week with an injured hamstring in the shape of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera. Anyone who still thought they were a genuine finals threat realised it was basically done the second he went off the ground.

This week should still be a gimme. Richmond have had their brave little moments, but they’re still Richmond 2026, which means effort, kids, occasional chaos, and then usually a scoreboard that tells everyone to stop getting carried away.

The Saints should win this, and Gold Coast the week after is very gettable. But their fate is now sitting in Carlton’s hands, which is a disgusting place to leave anything valuable.

This has a tiny bit of danger game stink around it. North at Marvel can be annoying, and Geelong away from their Geelong comfort blanket is not quite the same terrifying concept as Geelong at GMHBA, where visitors arrive already emotionally defeated.

North have improved enough to make these games awkward, but there’s still a difference between annoying good teams and actually beating them. They’ll bring pressure, Sheezel will probably rack it up, and for a while this may look more uncomfortable than the Cats would like.

But Geelong still have too much system and too much late-season muscle. Even in less familiar territory, they should eventually tidy this up.

As expected, the Lions have decided jokes over, let’s start playing properly at the most annoying time of the year. Every season they seem to spend a few months giving the competition hope, then suddenly remember they’re Brisbane and start treating teams like traffic cones.

Gold Coast are stumbling into another very Gold Coast finish, where the talent is there, the frustration is everywhere, and the season slowly turns into a spreadsheet full of missed chances. They can still make this a bit spicy, because they love being useful only when it no longer matters.

But at the Gabba, this feels like Brisbane’s game to control. The Suns will have moments, then the Lions should eventually lean on them until the whole thing cracks.

Collingwood will be in the ten for no other reason than because Nick Daicos exists. He continues to play football like someone gave him access to a different version of the sport, while the old dogs around him somehow keep finding one more job to do.

The Pies deserve credit. They’ve fought, scrambled, irritated, survived, and made the wildcard race feel like it was personally designed around their refusal to die. Which it probably was, but apparently we’re all too polite to say that out loud.

Hawthorn should bully them enough to show the discrepancy between top-six teams and wildcard teams. The Pies will scrap, but the Hawks have more speed, more scoring threats, and enough bite to win the big moments.

This could be scary for the Dees, because Port are a different type of beast at home. Even in a season where they’ve looked cooked for long stretches, Adelaide Oval gives them that annoying little surge of pride and menace.

Melbourne’s win over Fremantle was big. Not just for the ladder, but because it showed they can still turn a good team into a wrestling match and make them hate every second of it. That old Dees ugliness is still there when they want to bring it out.

Port will come hard and probably make this gross. But Melbourne have more to play for, a stronger spine, and just enough September-shaped hardness to survive the trip.

If Carlton lose the next few, GWS are still a chance for finals if they win this and next week. And it would be a very GWS thing to come out of nowhere, smash both games, and suddenly be back in the conversation like they weren’t face-planting five minutes ago.

West Coast have had little signs, little patches, little brave moments. Lovely. Unfortunately, they’re now heading to Sydney to face a side with everything to play for, and no amount of “showing development” changes the fact GWS should be treating this like a percentage hunt.

The Giants are impossible to fully trust, because their form chart looks like it was drawn by a possum on Red Bull. But if they turn up properly, this should be ugly.

Biggest game of the week. The battle for ninth. One side edging into finals who should definitely be there, and one side edging their way out while trying not to look too panicked about it.

The Bulldogs have somehow been making it happen for most of the year, but they’re literally hanging on by a Bont and Richards thread. Their percentage is still an insult to mathematics, and every time they need to look convincing, they seem to produce something held together with tape and vibes.

Carlton have the forward weapons, the midfield power, and enough momentum to beat a Dogs side that keeps flirting with disaster. This is a massive spot, and the Blues should be good enough if they don’t decide to Carlton the whole thing.

Essendon, for the love of god, do not try and cause an upset in the next few weeks. Just roll over, hibernate for next year, and let the draft pick arrive without making this more complicated than it needs to be.

Sydney are not the team you want to play when you’re trying to politely lose football games. They’re locked in, they’ve got the midfield humming, and their forward mix is starting to look far more settled at the right time.

This should be a professional Swans kill job. Essendon might get a Merrett game, a Caddy moment, and a small collection of “green shoots”, because apparently every bad team must legally have green shoots. Sydney should win comfortably.