Round 22 AFL Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

The big Bullydogs only need to do what they do best here, and that is thrash teams that are less than. Even with their dog crap percentage, that should still see them into the finals if they stop finding creative ways to make easy things look deeply complicated.

North have improved this year, but their season is basically cooked now. They had their little sniff around the wildcard edges, made everyone pretend they were a mature football team for a few weeks, then got reminded that development usually comes with paperwork, setbacks and pain.

The Dogs have too much star power here. Bont, Richards and the forward mix should eventually overwhelm North, even if the Roos hang around long enough to make Dogs fans start checking live ladders like nervous accountants.

This is probably the game of the round, which is rude, because now everyone has to pretend they’re watching it for “tactical reasons” and not because it could turn into a proper finals preview.

Hawthorn have been brilliant for most of the year. They’ve got speed, confidence, scoreboard punch, and the sort of young-list arrogance that makes neutral supporters both impressed and mildly ill. They don’t fear anyone, which is useful until Brisbane start turning the Gabba into a humid meat grinder.

The Lions are timing their run like they’ve read the script before. At home, with their midfield humming and the forward line starting to share the load, they just feel a fraction safer. The Hawks will make this very real, but Brisbane at the Gabba gets the nod.

As the name suggests, this ground belongs to Melbourne, and so does this time slot. The wharfs in Melbourne are nowhere near the G, so that ace up the Dockers’ sleeve is useless. Terrible news for maritime-based football strategy, obviously.

Freo have been the best side in it for large chunks of the season, but the MCG is the one little question mark that keeps sitting there like an unpaid bill. Even if they lose, this is a good opportunity, and only their second proper look this year, to play at the G and get ready for the big stage.

Melbourne are not what they were, but they’re still dangerous when the game becomes a scrap. This feels like a weird, lower-scoring, slightly ugly MCG game where the Dees drag Freo into the mud and just hold them there long enough.

Sydney look like they’re starting to lock in properly now. They’re not always pretty, but they’ve got the midfield class, the defensive system, and enough forward danger to beat most sides without needing everything to go perfectly.

Port are still capable of being annoying, which is about the highest compliment left for them this season. They’ve got enough talent to make good teams work, but the gap between “competitive for a while” and “actually winning at the SCG” is fairly rude.

This feels like a professional Sydney job. Port might bring heat early, and they’ll probably have a patch where they look alive, but the Swans should wear them down and bank another win without too much melodrama. Tragic, really. Port games are better when everyone is yelling.

This will be a good opportunity for Essendon to drop more percentage, in the very unlikely event they win another game and don’t secure the first pick. It’s important to keep options open, even if those options are mostly grim.

Geelong have had some volatility, but this is exactly the sort of fixture where they usually stop mucking around and remind everyone they’re still Geelong. GMHBA Stadium against a cooked Essendon side is not a football match, it’s a scheduling complaint.

The Bombers might get some Merrett touches, a couple of cheap goals, and a few “effort was there” sentences for the post-game press conference. The Cats should get the four points and a nice little percentage snack.

Speaking of bullies, Adelaide just ran a train on Essendon and this will likely be another fill-up for the forwards. Richmond are slightly more alive than Essendon, but that is a bar so low it’s being used as cable protection.

The Tigers beating West Coast at least gave them something to smile about, which is lovely. Unfortunately, the reward is travelling to Adelaide to face a Crows side that looks like it has decided percentage is no longer a number, but a personal calling.

Adelaide should be far too strong at home. Their forward line is rolling, their midfield has enough supply, and Richmond’s backline could spend large parts of this looking like it has wandered into the wrong seminar.

Gold Coast cannot keep losing forever, and GWS form continues to be bipolar. This game has “why did anyone trust either of these teams?” written all over it in permanent marker.

The Giants have the better ceiling. When they’re on, they look like a side that can worry anyone, but when they switch off, they can make even their own supporters consider taking up gardening. At least plants only disappoint you seasonally.

The Suns are cooked from a finals point of view, but they’re due one of those annoying wins that makes people say “where was that six weeks ago?” GWS at Canberra should scrape it, but this is a horrible game to feel confident about.

The Pies should get the job done, but this scalp would be West Coast’s Grand Final. After losing last week to the Tiges, they’ll have a dip this week at home, mostly because there are only so many times a rebuilding side can be politely told they’re “showing signs.”

Collingwood are still fighting like absolute pests, which is usually when they’re at their most dangerous. They keep finding ways to stay in it, keep finding ways to make games ugly, and keep leaning on their veterans while Nick Daicos operates like he’s playing with cheat codes.

Perth makes it trickier than it should be, but Collingwood have more polish and far more reason to be ruthless. West Coast will make them work for it, then the Pies should do the very Collingwood thing and suck the oxygen out late.

The battle for 10th place will be a final in itself at Spud’s Game, because apparently the football gods wanted emotional stakes, finals maths, and two fanbases one bad turnover away from calling talkback radio.

St Kilda are still hanging around the edge of relevance, which is exactly where Ross Lyon football feels most at home. They’ll defend, scrap, slow it down, and turn the whole thing into a slightly damp trench war if Carlton let them.

But the Blues have more scoring weapons and a little more match-winning power. It probably won’t be pretty, because Carlton and St Kilda rarely meet and decide to do society a favour, but the Blues should have enough class late.