Round 9 NRL Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

The Bulldogs got put in their place a bit last week. Brisbane were too organised, too physical, and Canterbury never really looked like dragging control of the game back once it slipped. It was one of those losses that can either knock the wind out of you or wake you up a bit. The week before they were poor too, so there’s a little bit of pressure on now to stop this turning into a wobble.

The Cowboys got the win over Cronulla, but that game was pure chaos and not exactly the sort of thing that screams sustainable footy. They can still pile points on when things open up, but they’re also the sort of side that can look brilliant one week and then like they’ve never met each other the next. At Accor, I think the Dogs tighten it up, make it a bit uglier, and get back on track.

The Dolphins went down to the Warriors, but there was still enough there to say they’re very much in the fight each week. They didn’t get rolled over, they didn’t go missing, and they kept themselves right in it. That sort of game can actually give you a bit of confidence if you’re not completely hopeless, which they’re not.

Melbourne, on the other hand, got absolutely fed into a blender by Souths. Getting beaten is one thing, but getting belted 48-6 at home is the sort of result that makes everyone stop and stare. They’re clearly off it, and until they prove otherwise I’m not in a rush to trust them just because of the logo on the jersey. The Dolphins feel like the better vibe play here.

The Titans had the bye, which probably wasn’t the worst thing in the world because they’re still one of those sides you can talk yourself into for about 10 minutes before remembering who they are. Fresh legs helps, but it doesn’t suddenly fix all the usual nonsense.

Canberra got handled by the Tigers the week before and never really stamped themselves on the game the way they needed to. Still, I’d trust them a whole lot more than the Titans in a proper grind. They’re a bit clunky, sure, but they should have more steel through the middle and a bit more composure when things get messy. That should be enough here.

Parramatta came back down to earth pretty quickly last week. After that nice little bounce the week before, Manly gave them a decent enough touch-up and it felt a lot more like the real Eels again. There’s still too much fragility there to trust them against a side that keeps turning up and doing the basics well.

The Warriors just keep banking wins. They didn’t blow the Dolphins off the park, but they got the job done again, and good sides tend to keep doing that even when they’re not at their best. Against Parramatta, I can see the Wahs being a bit too settled, a bit too patient, and just generally less dumb over the course of the night.

The Roosters absolutely mauled the Dragons last week and looked like they could’ve scored more if they felt like being rude, which they usually do. Once they got rolling, it was a training run. They’ve got a bit of swagger about them now and they’re starting to look like one of the sharper attacking sides in the comp.

Brisbane were solid against the Bulldogs, but this is a very different hit-out. They’ll be in it, because they’re still too good not to be, but the Roosters look a little more polished and a little more dangerous with the ball at the minute. At Allianz, I think they just edge it in a good one.

Newcastle got another reminder last week that they’re not quite in the same tax bracket as the heavyweights. They had their little moment, then Penrith did Penrith things and squeezed the life out of them. The Knights are better than they have been, but they still look vulnerable once momentum swings against them.

Souths, meanwhile, absolutely belted Melbourne and looked full of confidence doing it. Yes, the Storm have been off the boil, but putting 48 on them in Melbourne is still no joke. The Rabbitohs look sharper, more confident, and more dangerous in attack right now. That should carry over here.

Cronulla got into a basketball game with the Cowboys and came off second best. They can still score plenty, but leaking 46 points is not exactly the sort of thing you frame and hang on the wall. They’ve now had a couple of shaky weeks in a row and there’s a bit of pressure on to actually steady things.

The Tigers, on the other hand, bounced back really nicely against Canberra. They looked lively, had a bit of confidence about them, and didn’t panic when the game threatened to wobble. There’s a bit more grit in them this year, and this feels like the sort of game where they can stay in the grind and pinch it late.

Penrith were back to looking like Penrith last week. After flirting with danger the week before, they went to Newcastle and pretty much wrung the life out of the contest once they settled in. When they’re in that mood, they make good teams look pretty ordinary, which is deeply annoying for the rest of the comp.

Manly are going well and they comfortably handled Parramatta, but this is a different beast altogether. They’re good enough to hang around for a while, but Penrith usually don’t let games get played on anyone else’s terms for too long. Once the grind kicks in, I think the Panthers pull away.