NRL Finals Week 1 Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

Souths have found something at the right time. Latrell back in the side changes their whole feel, Johnston is still a try-scoring machine, and their attack has enough shape to trouble Newcastle if they get clean ball to the edges. They’re not perfect, because that would be deeply off-brand, but they look dangerous.

Newcastle are gritty, but they’re limping into this. Losing key forwards hurts badly, especially against a Souths side that can build pressure if they win the middle. Ponga gives them a puncher’s chance because he can still turn nothing into something, but asking him to carry a finals attack on the road is a fairly rude assignment.

The Knights will scrap, but Souths look healthier, sharper and more dangerous. In a knockout game, that should be enough.

This is easily the most exciting game of the first week. The Warriors have earned their top-two spot the hard way, grinding through injuries and reshuffles without falling apart. That matters. Their pack gives them a proper finals platform, and in Auckland, with a home preliminary final on the line, they’ll be an absolute nightmare.

The Dolphins are not here for a cute little participation certificate. They have speed everywhere, Katoa has been steering them beautifully, and their outside backs can turn one lazy edge read into a full-blown disaster. Hammer, Isaako, Cobbo and Farnworth give them enough strike to beat anyone if the game opens up.

This feels like a proper coin flip. The Dolphins have the cleaner attacking punch, but the Warriors at home should have just enough middle-field control to drag it their way.

Cronulla at home in an elimination final feels about right: good enough to trust, but not quite enough to relax. Hynes gives them polish, Mulitalo and Katoa give them edge strike, and their pack has enough bite to put the Cowboys under pressure. The worry is that they can still drift in and out of games like they’re checking emails mid-set.

North Queensland are dangerous if Drinkwater and Dearden get time. That combination gives them shape, speed and enough creativity to make Cronulla nervous. But the Cowboys have been a bit too up-and-down, and in a knockout game, the loose patches become harder to hide.

This has nervy Sharks win written all over it. Cowboys will hang around, probably make it annoying late, then Cronulla should find enough class to get through.

Penrith in September is still Penrith in September. They might not have looked as brutally automatic all year, and the injuries have made things a little messier than usual, but the bones of the side are still built for finals: Cleary kicking teams into corners, a pack that can grind forever, and a defensive system that makes every set feel expensive.

The Roosters are dangerous, but the timing is ugly. Sam Walker being out hurts their attacking shape, and they have been patchy at the worst possible point of the year. Tedesco and Cherry-Evans give them enough class to make this uncomfortable, but the Chooks need to be near-perfect to beat Penrith in a qualifying final.

This should be tight early, but Penrith’s control and finals experience should wear the Roosters down. The Roosters have the strike to scare them, but the Panthers are the safer side when the game turns into a grind.