Race 1: Blue Sapphire Stakes
🏆 Our Pick Over Excited
Over Excited has been knocking on the door in strong three-year-old company, including a runner-up finish behind Satono Glow at Flemington. The Freedman-trained filly looks well suited to this assignment, and her recent form makes her the one they have to beat.
💰 Value Play Threads
Threads arrives with winning form, having saluted over 1100m at Caulfield in late September. She’s already shown she can handle the track, and the extra 100m gives her a decent chance to back it up at a bigger price than the favourite.
🎲 The Smokey Aemond
Aemond finished third behind Threads at Caulfield last start, so he’s not coming into this without a form line worth following. He needs to find another gear against stronger opposition, but there’s enough in that run to give him an outside chance at a juicy price.
Race 2: Gothic Stakes
🏆 Our Pick Barracks
Barracks broke through at Rosehill over 1200m at the end of September and arrives with confidence on his side. The rise to 1400m is the next test, but he’s shown enough consistency in his short career to suggest another strong performance is on the cards.
💰 Value Play I Am Aria
I Am Aria ran second over 1200m at Caulfield last start and already has a win to her name. She’s stepping up in distance and class, but her recent efforts suggest she can make her presence felt if she settles and sees out the 1400m.
🎲 The Smokey Star Of Macedon
Star Of Macedon comes off a maiden win at Kilmore and has been remarkably consistent, finishing in the placings in all five career starts. This is a tougher assignment, but an improving three-year-old with that record deserves some respect at longer odds.
Race 3: Caulfield Classic
🏆 Our Pick Vallice
Vallice has been competing in quality three-year-old races over shorter distances, and the move to 2000m could be exactly what he’s been building towards. He’s one of the leading chances in early betting, although he’ll need to show genuine improvement on his recent finishing positions to justify favouritism.
💰 Value Play Vantaa
Vantaa heads into this after breaking through over 1600m at Pakenham and looks to be improving as the distances increase. This is a considerable jump in grade, but another 400m could bring out the best in him if he handles the step up.
🎲 The Smokey Skua
Skua impressed winning his maiden over 1600m at Seymour and has the breeding of a horse that could develop into a genuine stayer. The Caulfield Classic is a much sterner examination, but he’s an interesting outsider with upside.
Race 4: Thousand Guineas
🏆 Our Pick Regal Ambition
Regal Ambition has put together a strong preparation and arrives off a Listed win at Caulfield, where she beat Pretty Baby in the Jim Moloney Stakes. The step to a mile brings another challenge, but she’s shown the class and consistency to justify her place near the top of the market.
💰 Value Play Pretty Baby
Pretty Baby had been putting together an impressive winning streak before Regal Ambition brought it to an end, and she wasn’t disgraced finishing a length behind her. Damian Lane takes the ride from barrier five, and the price difference between the two makes her a tempting alternative.
🎲 The Smokey Sing Your Song
Sing Your Song has attracted market attention following a promising third over 1400m in Sydney. She’s got a favourable inside draw and could be finishing hard if the mile suits, making her an interesting outsider against some more established fillies.
Race 5: Ethereal Stakes
🏆 Our Pick Miss Waititi
Miss Waititi stamped herself as a serious staying prospect with an impressive victory over 1800m in the Listed Super Impose Stakes at Flemington. She now gets another 200m, which looks a natural progression, and that last-start win is one of the strongest pieces of form in this field.
💰 Value Play Joely
Joely chased home Saintly Dancer in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes over 1600m, giving her valuable experience against strong opposition. She now steps up to 2000m, and if she sees out the trip, her recent Group 2 placing makes her dangerous.
🎲 The Smokey So Royal
So Royal made a winning debut over 1400m at Ballarat, so there’s still plenty we don’t know about her ceiling. This is an enormous rise in distance and class for just her second start, but her So You Think breeding offers some encouragement that she might appreciate a longer trip.
Race 6: Caulfield Sprint
🏆 Our Pick Cavalry Girl
Cavalry Girl has built an excellent sprinting record, winning three races on the bounce before finishing runner-up in Group 3 company at Sandown. The return to 1000m looks right up her alley, and she deserves to be favourite if she lines up here.
💰 Value Play I’m Foxing
I’m Foxing has been well supported in early betting, with punters clearly expecting another big preparation after his previous winning run. He’s got to bring that form back from a break, but his winning habit makes him an appealing alternative to the short-priced favourite.
🎲 The Smokey Bev’s Nine
Bev’s Nine has won six of eight career starts, which is a serious strike rate for a horse sitting outside the main group in early betting. He’s returning to strong company and needs to prove himself at this level, but that winning record makes him difficult to dismiss.
Race 7: Harry White Stakes
🏆 Our Pick Cote Atlantique
Cote Atlantique is flying, having followed a narrow defeat at Flemington with victory in the Listed Paris Lane Stakes over 1400m. He’s hitting this race in peak form, and another performance like his last two would put him right in the finish.
💰 Value Play Amenable
Amenable finished fourth behind Cote Atlantique last start after placing at Group 3 level the run before, so the recent form is certainly there. He’s proven at 1400m and offers an appealing price for a horse capable of turning the tables with a better run.
🎲 The Smokey Cartoon Graveyard
Cartoon Graveyard is a seasoned campaigner with eight career wins, including four around the 1400m mark. He’s no stranger to tougher races, and while this field has some serious class, he’s the sort of outsider who could sneak into the finish at attractive odds.
Race 8: Caulfield Cup
🏆 Our Pick Cosmic Crusader
Cosmic Crusader announced himself as the horse to beat with a brilliant Group 1 Turnbull Stakes victory at Flemington, and William Pike stays aboard for the big one. Barrier 17 is awkward and he’s never raced over 2400m, but if he stays the trip, his recent form makes him an obvious winning chance.
💰 Value Play Saint George
Saint George finished second in the Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield before finding the Turnbull Stakes a tougher assignment, but he gets a much more appealing setup here. Barrier two, 53.5kg and Craig Williams in the saddle make him an attractive alternative to the favourite.
🎲 The Smokey Starford
Irish raider Starford brings genuine European staying form, including a Group 3 victory, and receives a significant weight drop compared with his latest overseas start. Barrier 15 makes life tricky, but Joseph O’Brien knows how to prepare international runners and this one could spring a surprise at big odds.
Race 9: Alinghi Stakes
🏆 Our Pick Extragalactic
Extragalactic was runner-up at Caulfield over 1200m in late September and has finished first or second in seven of her nine career starts. She’s a remarkably reliable mare, and the drop to 1100m gives her an excellent chance to go one better.
💰 Value Play Geegees Mistruth
Geegees Mistruth brings plenty of class with seven career victories and a strong record of finishing in the placings. She was fifth at Caulfield last start, but a better run in transit could see her bounce back and challenge the leading chances.
🎲 The Smokey Eagle Express
Eagle Express has returned in encouraging form, winning at Rosehill in August before finishing second there in September. She’s stepping into stronger company, but Chris Waller has a mare in form and she could be competitive at a bigger price.
Race 10: Tristarc Stakes
🏆 Our Pick Concord Connie
Concord Connie has made an impressive start to her career, winning three of her first five races before returning with a second at Mornington. She should be fitter for that outing, and stepping up to 1400m looks a good opportunity to get back into the winner’s circle.
💰 Value Play Ole Dancer
Ole Dancer already has a Group 1 Thousand Guineas victory on her CV, so there’s no questioning her ability when she’s at her best. Her recent form needs to be weighed against that proven class, but she’s an interesting option if she produces something close to her best.
🎲 The Smokey Stealth Of Night
Stealth Of Night has shown she can be competitive at Caulfield and wasn’t beaten out of sight when fourth over 1400m at Randwick in September. She’s a genuine outsider in this company, but her experience over the distance gives her at least a case for an upset.
Tips prepared 13 October 2026. Supporting-race selections are provisional pending final acceptances. Check runners, track conditions and prices before betting. Racing predictions are opinions, not guarantees.