AFL Finals Week 3 Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

Fremantle have hardly looked like a side that has it all together this finals series. The Hawthorn loss exposed them, the Geelong win steadied them, but they still haven’t exactly looked like a team cruising through September with everything under control.

Now they have to go to Sydney, at the SCG, against a side that loves turning games into arm-wrestles. That is a difficult ask. Sydney are organised, disciplined, and very good at making teams play ugly football. Freo can’t afford to spend the first half waiting for the game to come to them again.

But I think their strength across the ground and hunger will come into play here, instead of thinking it’ll just happen for them. They’ve had the scare, they’ve had the reminder, and now they should know this isn’t just going to happen because they were the best side across the home-and-away season.

Freo’s midfield depth, pressure and ability to win the contest gives them a real shot. If they bring the heat early and stay composed, they can make this their type of game. Sydney are a serious side, especially at home, but Freo feel like they’ve done their wobble. Now they need to prove it was just a wobble, not the start of the classic Fremantle emotional damage documentary.

I swear Brisbane lost to Sydney on purpose so that they could have a warm-up at the G in front of around 90k, before doing the exact same thing the week after. And if they didn’t, that loss was clearly the wake-up call they needed.

The Lions came out against Adelaide and looked like a team that suddenly remembered finals had started. Their pressure was better, their ball movement was sharper, and their forward line looked far more dangerous once the midfield actually gave them something to work with.

Hawthorn are no easy out. They’ve been one of the best pressure sides all year, they move the ball quickly, and they’ll have enough of the crowd behind them to make this feel like a proper final. If the Hawks can turn it into a chaos game, they’re absolutely a chance.

But Brisbane have been here before, and when they get into gear at this time of year, they’re still one of the hardest teams in the comp to stop. Their midfield has the strength to absorb Hawthorn’s pressure, and their forwards have enough options to make the Hawks pay if the ball starts living in Brisbane’s half.

The Hawks will make it uncomfortable, but Brisbane look like they’ve woken up at the right time. Annoying for Hawthorn, helpful for those of us who enjoy tipping teams that remember how football works.