Round 6 AFL Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

The Melbourne Comedy Festival’s premiere act returns for another Thursday night special. Although no one favoured them against Adelaide, and the end margin was set by the Crows in a five-minute burst in the second, Carlton still showed plenty of skill gaps and never looked threatening.

Speaking of not threatening, in the most boring game I’ve seen, rivalled only by Auskick, Collingwood just couldn’t close. Besides the last two minutes, not one second of that game was worth remembering.

Still, Collingwood are proving they can run with the best of them. Carlton are only showing that they can lose to the best of them. And the worst of them. And everyone in between.

It’s usually a good clash, but I see Carlton doing another classic disappearance at half time.

The Dogs came back to earth with a thud last week. After a nice enough start to the season, Hawthorn outran them, pressured them into mistakes, and made them look second-rate for most of the night. That is not the sort of tune-up you want before heading down the highway.

Geelong, meanwhile, did what Geelong tend to do against weaker sides at home. Let West Coast pretend for a while, then quietly turned the screws until it looked like a proper scoreboard. No fireworks, just that same smug competence that makes Kardinia one of the more annoying road trips in footy.

Still, the Dogs have a bit more class than the Eagles, and this feels like the type of spot where they respond after getting pantsed on national TV. If they get first use through the middle and don’t let Geelong own territory, they can pinch this.

In what looked and felt like a regional match last week, the Swans kept the Suns at arm’s length all game and were in much more control than the margin suggested. Even with Charlie having the yips, his presence still allowed the rest of the team to be dangerous.

The Giants got the win they badly needed, but it still felt more like a reset than a warning shot. Sydney at the SCG is a very different headache.

Bigger brother always beats up the young in this scenario.

Question marks on the Suns have begun to appear. Although it’s no surprise they travel badly, Sydney didn’t exactly have the upper hand against them last week either, and yet still played with a lot more grit. If they plan on hanging around long in September, they’ll have to get used to other grounds. Luckily, they can recalibrate this week.

As we predicted, the Dons really didn’t want to etch their name on the longest losing streak plaque hanging at the Hangar. It was the first time in almost two years that they actually played with confidence and gelled together.

Going by Essendon’s game last week, I would’ve backed them if this was at Marvel. But it isn’t. And the Suns will want to put some relevance back into their season here.

It’s official. The Hawks have stopped making Super 8 indies and achieved Hollywood status. During the recent scalping of the Bulldogs, after a five-day break, they looked much fitter and brought much better pressure all the way to the end.

Port’s a bit of a bogey team, but they’re real bad at the minute. They might scare Hawthorn for a bit, but the Hawks look fitter, cleaner and far more dangerous right now.

Hawks by 18.

After a slow start to the year, the Crows have a second notch on the belt, although only against the Blues. Hinge also doing a U-ey onto their already heavy injury list doesn’t help.

The Saints can enjoy another week in Radelaide, hit a few wineries after their win against Port, and generally lap up the attention. But this still feels like the exact sort of spot where everyone gets a bit carried away with them.

Adelaide at home is still a different problem, and if the Saints are even slightly off after last week’s effort, the Crows will make them pay.

To no one’s surprise, North’s best start to the year in as far back as I care to look up, 2016, has hit a bump, but it’s far from derailed them at this stage. Less than two kicks away from last year’s premiers late in the last quarter is still a morale booster, if anything.

Richmond were every chance of getting blown off the park by GWS and, to their credit, they hung around well enough after quarter time. The problem is they still look too easy to score against when the game opens up, and North have shown a bit more method than usual this year.

Unless North do something very North, this is the kind of game they should be banking.

After answering all the tough questions this year, the Dees slipped up on the equivalent of spelling their own name. The whole team looked lethargic and slow, a stark difference from their form this year. They’ll want to turn up the heat this week.

In saying that, Brissy weren’t exactly playing their premiership best last week either, only just beating North after kicking away in the last term, in a game that was far too close for comfort.

Still, the Lions know how to turn it on when they have to. But if the Dees play like they did last week, they can just leave it turned off.

The Eagles were competitive for a half against Geelong, which is a bit like getting praised for not burning the house all the way down. The Cats still kicked away when they wanted, and West Coast still looked short on polish once the game sped up.

Freo won’t get many style points for that slog against Collingwood, but good sides win ugly too. They defended well, held their nerve, and derbies are rarely the place to go chasing pretty.

If West Coast can turn it into a scrap they might hang around early, but Fremantle just look far more settled and far better drilled at the minute.