Round 5 AFL Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

Despite losing to the Kanga last week in a series of unfortunate second halves, I saw some improvements from the Blues. They didn’t go hell for leather at the start and leave nothing in the tank for the second half. Still, they lost to North. Can’t polish that one.

The Crows continue to underperform, despite featuring in game of the round last week. Coming into the round as the underdogs was already the sign. Last year’s Minor Premiers should be safe at home, but they keep getting caught out.

But now, they get a chance to redeem themselves at home, with the weight of the AFL world embarking in Adelaide and their opponent isn’t a top 4 favourite. But a bottom 4 one.

Both teams have been going a step in the right direction, and two steps back. This week will coincide with Adelaide the former, Carlton the latter.

I haven’t seen such a one man team since playing against Andrew Hooper back in the under 12s. Didn’t think it’d happen at the top level. But to be fair, you could’ve injected the Vic State of Origin team into the Gabba last week and Brisbane would’ve still had their way.

I’m not convinced that Freo are the real deal in 2026, but they’re not far off. Binning the Crows in the crow yard is a good step for a team who refused to win away from home a few years ago.

Finalfourmantle will already have the upper hand, with last week’s experience on the ground against a very hostile crowd. And even if they didn’t, I’d still think they are 5 goals ahead at this stage. I think this will be another blow for the Pies.

Take a bow for 2026 thus far North. But not too deeply, because Brisbane are on the other side ready to rub your face into the dirt. Although the Kangaroos haven’t had a lot to celebrate in a long time, and last week was an awesome win, their draw has been softer than Carlton’s second halves.

The Lions have woken from their hibernation slumber, and are seriously ready to build another three tier Premiership Cup shelf. They absolutely dominated Collingwood for the entire game showing absolutely no mercy. #prayforsteele

Although the Kangaroos upset the Premiers with a draw in Tassie in their Premiership year previously, this will be too much of a leap for them.

Now that they are on the verge of the club’s biggest losing streak, the Bombers decided to wake up at half time last week, and in a clumsy affair managed to put some respect on the end scoreboard, but it wasn’t enough. A month ago, I would’ve liked them to get this done, but not anymore.

The Dees have well and truly exceeded expectations this year, which shows any team with a culture problem can turn it around. If Essendon can take anything out of this game, let it be that. If I were Steven King, I’d draft Kozzy’s entire WhatsApp group if they boost his aura half as much as Latrelle does.

The Dons should get Ridley, Caddy and possibly Bryan back this week, which turns them around significantly. I don’t know if it’s enough, but I’m backing them to not want to etch their names in history as the worst Essendon team of all time.

Sydney and their golden boy Heeney came in hot after the week off, and absolutely buried the Eagles in their own nest. The win didn’t raise any eyebrows, the flogging reminded everyone they are still hunting for September.

Have the Suns regressed to being at home wonders, or was last week a mulligan? Rowell and Petracca out help sing this song, but they do need steady this ship.

After both performances in away games last week, I think the Swans are the safer bet in the neutral territory.

Hawks, maybe thanks to Nick Watson, lifted the Kennett Curse last week – beating Geelong on Easter Monday. While the Hawks were still the better team across the ground, Geelong have been a shadow of their former self. This week is a different kettle of fish.

Besides walking away easily with 4 points, you could almost consider last week a loss for the Dogs. After looking themselves for a quarter or so, they stooped to Essendon’s level with silly errors and low intensity at times. They can’t be doing that against Hawthorn.

Still, last week I think the Bulldogs took the step off the gas, and Essendon never looked anywhere near threatening. They still resembled witches hats to the Doggies. They’ll come out hard again, but for four quarters this time.

After an epic Easter Monday special, the Cats will be filthy they let that one slip in the last minute. Now that it’s the first time the ladder actually means something – Geelong find themselves outside the top 10. No rewarding mediocrity for them at this stage.

The Eagles new found hope in 2026, was completely shot down last week with a 128 point loss to the Swans. A bird of less prey. They looked slow and unfit, which could slightly be attributed to Sydney having fresher legs from the week off – but they looked to be in a lesser class.

Although the Eagles, and thanks to Ginbey, nearly upset Geelong last year – I think they’ll come out aggressively and beat up the poor Eagles.

For a team that’s barely in the headlines, the week off came at a convenient time, since the Giants have failed to fire on most cylinders all year, sitting in the bottom 4, with a list that screams top 4.

The Tiges seem to only be young and fun when they’re playing under the big lights against the likes of the Blues. They’ve been getting the business end from all three other states in the same amount of weeks.

This smells like GWS recalibrating, or at least a faux sense of that.

After a dreadful loss at home against the Eagles, Port are still sniffing around as top 14 contenders with a big win against Richmond. They’ve had literally the easiest start of all time and are still 2-2, so anyone thinking they might be okay this year are going to be woken up this week.

Speaking of happy to be out of the headlines, Saints also enjoyed a week off to hide from the lacklustre start to 2026. The 1-3 start, with vsing only one heavyweight, is singing the money can’t buy premierships song.

Still, Port’s latest easy beat win will be proven to be nothing more than what it was, while the Saints will step away with more false sense of bravado, until they face Adelaide in the exact same location 6 days later.