Round 4 AFL Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

It took 2 full, and 7/8th of football matches for Brisbane to recover from their hangover, and to finally look good again. Their high pressure win against the Saints is good exposure for what’s to come this week.

The Pies looked the upper hand all night against GWS last Friday, in an incredibly dull game where both teams did their best impression of England playing soccer.

Collingwood have been playing a very well drilled brand of footy, but when push comes to shove Brisbane have the superior list across the ground. If the Lions are on the same page this week, they’ll win comfortably.

Even though it’s only round 4, it still feels very unnatural seeing North in the top 6. However, they’ve had an easy start to the season, and last week’s skill-depraved hit out against Essendon suggests they won’t be sitting that high for much longer.

Carlton did the most Carlton thing last week, and coughed up a 5 goal lead at half time, to lose by almost as much. It’s beyond comical how different their second halves are.

50% of a game to have a hoodoo for is troubling, and with a short break for the Blues, I think the Roos will be the next team to take advantage of this.

The Crows have had far from a dream start, but to be fair they’ve been up against it early on, and only lost against the Dogs by 6 and Geelong by 8, and at Geelong. Nothing to write them off just yet.

On the flip side of this, Freo has been looking dangerous, but only due to a few easy wins at home in Richmond and Melbourne.

This would be a cracker of a game on neutral territory, but I think the home ground advantage would swing a few goals in either direction. So I’m backing the Crows.

Richmond stuck with Freo admirably for half the game last week, before seeing the business side of the Dockers talls up forward. Still, the young tiger cubs are a massive chance here, if they can run out the full game.

Port started like a house on fire last week, but then completely stepped off the gas to get done by West Coast, in their own home. Butters is seriously missing some support in the guts, which was very evident.

Richmond seem like a younger and hungrier side, while Port are in a bit of disarray of where they sit at the moment. I smell an upset.

The Eagles continued their time warp last week of playing like it is 2005 with a solid come from behind win against Port, in Adelaide. A lot to like from them at the minute, with young Shanahan and Duursma starting to blossom, and Harley’s physicality peaking. However, if it is 2005, then the last team they want to face are the Swans.

Sydney would have enjoyed the week off, more time for Heeney to get back on his feet, which is more important than ever seeing how Errol is gone for most of the season.

The young fun Eagles might give them a bit of a scare, but it won’t be 4 quarters worth, and the home team should easily prevail.

Melbourne showed some serious backbone last week, with a big come behind win to give Max Gawn the 250th he deserves. Kozzy also showed he is worth every cent he earns. However, the ecstasy of that win will be short lived.

After the week off, the undefeated Suns will be absolutely itching to get back into it and continue to show their worth for the season. Petracca may have a target on his back, but he knows the ground well and this will be a good opportunity for Gold Coast to get used to it before September.

I think the Dees will go especially hard, and the Melbourne members might actually turn up for no other reason than to boo Petracca. But, I can’t see it being enough.

If you normally have an Easter lunch with the fam, I recommend you make it dinner this year to avoid this bloodbath.

The new rules were built for the Dogs. They have been looking more accurate already this year, which is super scary considering how aggressive they play.

Essendon hit a new low last week losing to North and looking a complete rabble. With 15 losses in a row, they are staring down the barrel of their longest losing streak ever, 17. I’m sure the players, and definitely Brad Scott, will not want to feature in this stat.

Although the Dogs always start hard, I can see the Bombers hanging in for about 15 minutes before they get split open.

After a grim few games on Easter Sunday, it’ll be good to finish the week on a high with the second best home and away game of the year.

Although in their most recent game they beat the Swans, the Hawks definitely haven’t earned Hollywood status yet, but a win here would elevate them to Bollywood. Although, they’ve got a bit of a hoodoo against the Cats, and haven’t won this game since 2022.

Geelong have gotten a couple of tough games out of the way already, so they’re primed to fight against a formidable opponent. And while the Hawks have the home ground advantage, the Geelong fans often turn out in surplus in these big games at the G. So it won’t sway in favour of Hawthorn.

Should be a belter, and I’m backing the Cats to continue their streak against the Hawks.