AFL Tips

Round 23 AFL Tips 2025 | SGM Bets & Predictions!

Jimmy and The Machine give their expert footy tips for Round 23 in the 2025 AFL Season.

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Jimmy and The Machine are here to give you their predictions and same game multi tips for each game this round!


Essendon vs. St Kilda

Friday, August 15 – Marvel Stadium

Jimmy’s Prediction: St Kilda by 18

It’s okay. Only two more weeks of AFL botching up prime time slots to go. Although the Bombers are getting stretched left, right and centre – it is quite nice watching some of their mid season blow ins, get their chance on the big stage and having a dip – with McMahon snagging 4 in his 4th AFL game. However, I’m very aware these story lines would be way less interesting for non Don fans. 

The Saints are 3 on the trot at the minute, and if they get the W here it’ll be the longest win streak since 2023 – maybe they’ll make a DVD on it. They seem to be doing a bit of a reverse Carlton, and the last 3 wins they’ve been losing in at least in the 3rd quarter. 

The Bombers are using every man, woman, child or dog at their disposal to get through the year – and very few of these newbies are taking it for granted. Still, head to head, the current Saints team have more talent, and are just toying with teams at the minute (not by design), and turning it on in the last quarter. 

The Saints to keep celebrating another pointless win. 

Jimmy’s Tips:

St Kilda to Win
1.27 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Archer May 2+ goals
  • Mason Wood 2+ goals
  • Under 169.5 points

SGM Odds: 29.95 at Neds

The Machine’s Prediction: Saints by 23

The Machine’s Tips:

Saints to Win
1.22 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 28+ disposals
  • Andrew McGrath 22+ disposals
  • Jack Steele 20+ disposals
  • Peter Wright 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 6.50 at Sportsbet


Fremantle vs. Brisbane

Friday, August 15 – Optus Stadium

Jimmy’s Prediction: Brisbane by 8

Woohoo, Western Australia is saving us from a full Friday night of football misery – to only having to watch Dons v Saints for 1 hour. 

Finalsmantle almost regressed back to their classic Fraudmantle status of last year, by only narrowly beating Port over in Adelaide last week.  Big Aex Pearce saving the day kicking the sealer as his 9th ever AFL goal, and giving the Dockers a sniff in the top 4.

There have been some cracks in Brisbane’s game all year, and after knocking off Collingwood the week prior – the Lions got shown up by Sydney. Albeit, if Brisbane decided to wake up and bring it at least 30 seconds prior, they probably would have won the game. Brisbane desperately need to figure this thing out, and Charlie Cameron needs to return from his mental holiday, if they are any chance to back up last years flag.

I like Freo in Perth a lot for this 4th v 5th, however I do think last week was another forgivable hiccup for Brisbane (I’ve given them a few), as Sydney have really been looking like a top team again. Port, not so much, and Freo only just passed that test.

Backing Brisbane, in an unconfident close one. 

Jimmy’s Tips:

Brisbane to Win
2.10 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Brisbane to Win
  • Jye Amiss 2+ goals
  • Charlie Cameron 3+ goals
  • Shai Bolton 15+ disposals

SGM Odds: 25.44 at Neds

The Machine’s Prediction: Fremantle by 4

The Machine’s Tips:

Fremantle to Win
1.78 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Caleb Serong 27+ disposals
  • Andrew Brayshaw 25+ disposals
  • Will Ashcroft 24+ disposals
  • Patrick Voss 2+ goals
  • Charlie Cameron 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 15.50 at Sportsbet


Gold Coast Eagles vs. GWS

Saturday, August 16 – People First Stadium

Jimmy’s Prediction: Gold Coast by 18

If you’re thinking “didn’t we just have the bloody expansion cup?”, then you’d be right – this is a rematch from only 8 weeks prior. The younger team GWS got the chocolates last time, in a high-scoring fun hit out – but that was at their home. Now it’s Gold Coasts turn.

The Suns are 8-1 at home this year (including 2 wins at Darwin), and 7 of these games were against top 10 teams (including Sydney as team 10, because they’re just as good). They’ve really turned People First into a fortress, and have lost at home the equal least amount of times this year – better than Geelong and Freo.

The Giants have got some issues, after getting pumped by the Dogs by 88 points a fortnight ago, their 9 goal win over the Kangaroos wasn’t as good as it sounds. Although Cadman has stood up in Hogans absence, they are a better team with Jesse in the team. 

Even if Hogan comes back in the team this week, I’m still backing the Suns to win this round.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Gold Coast to Win
1.43 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Gold Coast to Win
  • Jake Stringer 2+ goals
  • Toby Bedford 1+ goals

SGM Odds: 6.65 at Neds

The Machine’s Prediction: Gold Coast by 9

The Machine’s Tips:

Gold Coast to Win
1.43 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Noah Anderson 28+ disposals
  • Matt Rowell 27+ disposals
  • Toby Greene 2+ goals
  • Ben Ainsworth 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 10.00 at Sportsbet


Carlton vs. Port Adelaide

Saturday, August 16 – Marvel Stadium

Jimmy’s Prediction: Carlton by 12 

Carlton are the gift that keep on giving. After being premier contenders a few years ago, they’re back to being the battlers everyone has associated them as for the past three decades (with an anomaly in 2000). And now last week they had their own Miracle at Marvel opportunity kicking 5 goals in the last quarter – but wasn’t enough to steal a victory.

Port also came up stiff last week for their own upset and finals derailment opportunity. The Power had an epic 8 goal second term to put themselves in it against the Dockers, but couldn’t hang on in the end and just got done by a late goal.

With two games left, next week will be more a grand final for both teams as Carlton take on old foe Essendon, and Port will have their last chance at shaping the finals fixture against Gold Coast. Considering this is a nothing game for both teams, and they’re both as bad as each other – I’m backing the Blues purely because it’s in Melbourne.

Carlton by a couple.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Carlton to Win
1.50 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Carlton to Win
  • Mitch Georgiades 2+ goals
  • Willie Rioli 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 7.04 at Neds

The Machine’s Prediction: Carlton by 12

The Machine’s Tips:

Carlton to Win
1.50 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Patrick Cripps 26+ disposals
  • Sam Walsh 24+ disposals
  • Connor Rozee 24+ disposals
  • Zak Butters 26+ disposals

SGM Odds: 7.25 at Sportsbet


Hawthorn vs. Melbourne

Saturday, August 16 – MCG

Jimmy’s Prediction: Hawthorn by 14

Australias fastest growing unlikeable team proved it last week when they beat Collingwood – with people realising they would have preferred the Pies. Yes, the Bollywood Hok were back in prime smug and “celly” form, beating up on Collingwood, and really solidifying the Pies fall from grace – and probably securing themselves a spot in the 8. 

The Dees were very close last week in ruining their Western Suburb rivals’ finals chance last week. It was Melbournes Grand Final last week and they only just dropped it, but they may turn on this power again. 

The Hawks still need to bin this to be safe in the 8, and I’d be very worried. All the irrelevant teams are playing hard and trying their best to derail a teams finals campaign – and Melbourne have shown at times this year why they won the 2021 Grand Final.

Hawks, but closer than they’d like.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Hawthorn to Win
1.28 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Hawthorn to Win
  • Jake Melksham 2+ goals
  • Jacob van Rooyen 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 11.02 at Neds

The Machine’s Prediction: Hawthorn by 26

The Machine’s Tips:

Hawthorn to Win
1.28 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Jai Newcombe 24+ disposals
  • Christian Petracca 23+ disposals
  • Clayton Oliver 23+ disposals
  • Jack Gunston 2+ goals
  • Jack Ginnivan 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 13.50 at Sportsbet


Adelaide vs. Collingwood

Saturday, August 16 – Adelaide Oval

Jimmy’s Prediction: Adelaide by 23

The Pies slide out of the top 4 will be imminent after this belting. After flying on top for most of the season, the last month has been a snap turn around as Collingwood have lost form at the else possible time, and are now 1-4 out of their last five games.

The Crows are the opposite, and although they’ve been pretty solid all year, their run home has been sensational, winning their last 7 games in a row. Last weeks near miss against West Coast was an anomaly, and probably a good kick up the bum to ensure the Crows don’t get complacent.

With Jeremy Howe straight back on the sidelines after a head knock last week, Darcy Moore is going to get crushed by the three headed monster. Plus, we all know how much Collingwood hate leaving Melbourne, and over in Adelaide – forget about it.

Adelaide to make us forget Collingwood were ever good this season.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Adelaide to Win
1.39 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Adelaide Line (-16.5)
  • Bobby Hill 2+ goals
  • Lachie Schultz 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 39.85 at Neds

The Machine’s Prediction: Adelaide by 13

The Machine’s Tips:

Adelaide to Win
1.39 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Taylor Walker 2+ goals
  • Jordan Dawson 26+ disposals
  • Nick Daicos 28+ disposals

SGM Odds: 5.00 at Sportsbet


North Melbourne vs. Richmond

Sunday, August 17 – Ninja Stadium

Jimmy’s Prediction: Richmond by 4

Yuck. The battle for second and third draft pick will be a sight for sore eyes. Richmond were pretty close to sealing another win last week in a scrappy affair against the Saints. This could be the fastest rebuild of all time, after they’ve already had enough success in the last decade.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Roos have had the least amount of success in the last decade – and the patience is starting to wear thin. While they’ve looked quite good at times, they just keep regressing back to being the easy-beats.

While this is the best opportunity for both of them for success, I think the young Tiges are more hungry for it.

Richmond, in a game you’d wanna miss.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Richmond to Win
2.49 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Richmond to Win
  • Luke Parker 2+ goals
  • Cooper Harvey 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 46.29 at Neds

The Machine’s Prediction: Richmond by 6

The Machine’s Tips:

Richmond to Win
2.49 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Luke Davies-Uniacke 20+ disposals
  • Dion Prestia 22+ disposals
  • Seth Campbell 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 5.50 at Sportsbet


Sydney vs. Geelong

Sunday, August 17 – SCG 

Jimmy’s Prediction: Sydney by 4

The rematch of the worst grand final (2022) in recent history – and fight biggest deficit. Besides a few months of glory last year in early half of the season, the Swans have literally been imposters since that hit out.

Although Sydney left their run home 2-3 games too late this year, they are playing top tier football at the right time of the year, for once. Too bad it’s mostly irrelevant, but after beating Brisbane (and possibly ruining the Lions finals campaign) – the Swans may have a taste for blood.

The Cattery had the task last week on beating up on old injured Essendon – but were very unconvincing in doing so. In what should have been a 15 goal win and 10 goals to Jezza – at time was only a few kicks the difference. Although, Geelong never looked in real danger and managed to answer back on goals straight away, the second the Dons dared to be brave.

Sydney got their 2024 Grand Final vengeance last week by beating the Lions – going by their hot form, and Geelongs complacent form for last week, I’m going to back Sydney in an upset.

Swans to make amends for the 2022 Grand Final.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Sydney to Win
3.14 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Sydney to Win
  • Shaun Mannagh 2+ goals
  • Tyson Stengle 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 29.64 at Neds

The Machine’s Prediction: Geelong by 17

The Machine’s Tips:

Geelong to Win
1.37 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Jeremy Cameron 2+ goals
  • Shannon Neale 2+ goals
  • Errol Gulden 27+ disposals
  • Max Holmes 25+ disposals
  • Chad Warner 23+ disposals

SGM Odds: 7.50 at Sportsbet


Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles

Sunday, August 17 – Marvel Stadium

Jimmy’s Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 34

This is usually bread and butter for the big bullies of Footscray – beating the living crap out of the last placed team. Although after West Coasts effort last week – you can expect this to be a dog walk in the park.

The Dogs only just escaped finals death last week against the old foe Melbourne, but managed to get the win in a classic game. 

West Coast played their best game since the 2018 Grand Final – which was fitting as they were seeing off McGovern and Sheed. They were playing with some absolute heart, and they’ll surely be sore for this game.

West Coast have rarely backed up two good games all year, and I think they’d have given too much the week prior.

Doggies to go back to their old bullying way.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Total Points Over 178.5
1.90 at Neds

Same Game Multi

  • Over 178.5 Points
  • Marcus Bontempelli 3+ goals
  • Jobe Shanahan 2+ goals

SGM Odds:

The Machine’s Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 40

The Machine’s Tips:

West Coast Line (+72.5)
1.90 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Marcus Bontempelli 31+ disposals
  • Tim English 18+ disposals
  • Bailey Dale 28+ disposals
  • Aaron Naughton 2+ goals
  • Tim English 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 20.00 at Sportsbet

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