AFL Tips

Round 17 AFL Tips 2025 | SGM Bets & Predictions!

Jimmy and The Machine give their expert footy tips for Round 17 in the 2025 AFL Season.

Jimmy and The Machine are here to give you their predictions and same game multi tips for each game this round!


North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs

Thursday, July 3 – Marvel Stadium

Jimmy’s Prediction: Bulldogs by 46

A week ago I would’ve bet on North finishing 12th (if there was a market for it). After the smashing from Hawthorn in Tassie last week, they have been severely reassessed in my mind.

The Doggies had a very underrated win in my opinion. Off a 5 day break, and Sydney have found their feet are on the rise. The Bulldogs usually have a surplus of studs, and can now add Joel Freijah to that list after he bagged a last 4 goals, saving the game as Heeney ripped the Dogs a new one.

While the Roos will win a few more this year and keep building – it’s getting serious crunch time for the Dogs who will want to keep momentum, and players keeping their spots, coming closer to finals.

Dogs comfortably.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Bulldogs to Win
1.12 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Over 180.5 points

  • Cam Zurhaar 2+ goals

  • Aaron Naughton 3+ goals

  • Sam Darcy 3+ goals

  • Bulldogs to win by 40+

SGM Odds: 16.93 at Ladbrokes

The Machine’s Prediction: Bulldogs by 38

The Machine’s Tips:

Bulldogs to Win
1.05 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Marcus Bontempelli 25+ disposals

  • Tom Liberatore 25+ disposals

  • Nick Larkey 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 4.00 at Sportsbet


Carlton vs. Collingwood

Friday, July 4 – MCG

Jimmy’s Prediction: Collingwood by 32

Gee the Pies are so close to a loss I can smell it, but highly unlikely it’ll come from this brothel of Carlton.

The Blues were actually the poos last week, getting absolutely smoked by Port and dropping one spot on the ladder to them, in the only ladder change this week. Not that it matters as this years finals race is a far cry from last years finals.

It was a mix of Collingwood looking average and West Coast looking good last week that “nearly” saw the upset of the decade. Unfortunately though, given by how bad Carlton are lately we’ll have to put our eggs in Gold Coasts basket for next week.

Collingwood by more than few and to bury Voss.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Collingwood to Win
1.22 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Over 161.5 points

  • Collingwood line (-27.5)

  • Sam Docherty 20+ disposals

  • Lachie Fogarty 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 32.02 at Ladbrokes

The Machine’s Prediction: Collingwood by 22

The Machine’s Tips:

Collingwood to Win
1.21 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Nick Daicos 30+ disposals

  • Charlie Curnow 2+ goals

  • Jamie Elliott 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 5.00 at Sportsbet


West Coast Eagles vs. GWS

Friday, July 4 – Optus Stadium 

Jimmy’s Prediction: GWS by 48

The Eagles had their bi-monthly decent game outside of Perth, and really gave it to the Premiership favourites. However as much as they gave it their all, and were within a kick for most of the 3rd quarter – I don’t think the Pies ever broke a sweat worrying.

A week off for the 9th placed Giants will have them roaring to go and try break into the 8. They are only down on percentage, so they really should be looking at this game as, “we are only in front if we are 60 points up”. 

Given the Eagles have only strung two decent games in a row once this year, and the Giants have way more to play for – I’m backing the orange tsunami to coming and crash down Perth.

Giants to smash them.

Jimmy’s Tips:

GWS Line (-26.5)
1.90 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • GWS -23.5 points

  • Over 165.5 points

  • Harley Reid 1+ goals

  • Harley Reid 15+ disposals

  • Baily J. Williams 1+ goals

SGM Odds: 10.62 at Ladbrokes

The Machine’s Prediction: GWS by 27

The Machine’s Tips:

GWS to Win
1.27 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Toby Greene 2+ goals

  • Josh Kelly 25+ disposals

  • Liam Ryan 2+ goals

  • Harley Reid 20+ disposals

SGM Odds: 22.75 at Sportsbet


Essendon vs. Gold Coast

Saturday, July 5 – Marvel Stadium

Jimmy’s Prediction: Gold Coast by 8

The anniversary (close enough) of Mac Andrew officially ending Essendon’s finals hopes last year after the siren. The Dons surely still remembering and hating them for this, but may have to grit their teeth for another year for their revenge.

Essendon’s week off will help massively with some potential inclusions from their massive list of injuries (Ridley and Reid) – but a year off would replenish it better.

The Suns kept the Demons at bay pretty comfortably on the weekend. Besides this weekend, they’ve got a bloody tough month in matches against Collingwood, Brisbane and Adelaide – the trifecta of 1-3. 

With that, the Suns cannot drop this game if they want to make finals, especially considering they are only 8th on percentage. Though it would be poetic justice for Essendon to ruin their finals campaign, and they surely know that.

Gold Coast in a risky one.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Essendon Line (+22.5)
1.90 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Essendon line (+22.5)

  • Matt Guelfi 2+ goals

  • Bailey Humphrey 2+ goals

  • Darcy Parish 25+ disposals

  • Archie Roberts 25+ disposals

SGM Odds: 67.78 at Ladbrokes

The Machine’s Prediction: Essendon by 14

The Machine’s Tips:

Essendon to Win
3.66 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Zach Merrett 30+ disposals

  • Ben King 2+ goals

  • Noah Anderson 25+ disposals

  • Darcy Parish 25+ disposals

SGM Odds: 4.75 at Sportsbet


Geelong vs. Richmond

Saturday July 5 – GMHBA  Stadium

Jimmy’s Prediction: Geelong by 64

After a week off, the Cats will want to forget about their white night which turned their fortress into a fartress. They haven’t been that damaging at home lately, losing 2 of their last 4 in G-town.

The Tiges are blessed for another early game that Balta can attend to – but the street fighting attitude must be infectious as they’ve lost their other big man Lynch after he threw a big haymaker at Jordon Butts last weekend.

While Geelong need to stabilise a bit better coming into finals – Richmond need a full rebuild and to attend anger management classes. 

Geelong to flog them, and potentially more Richmond assaults.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Geelong to Win (40+)
1.28 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Over 176.5 points

  • Geelong line (-60.5)

  • Shannon Neale 3+ goals

  • Tyson Stengle 2+ goals

  • Oliver Dempsey 1+ goals

SGM Odds: 10.31 at Ladbrokes

The Machine’s Prediction: Geelong by 18

The Machine’s Tips:

Richmond Line (+59.5)
1.90 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Jeremy Cameron 3+ goals

  • Tom Stewart 20+ disposals

  • Tim Taranto 25+ disposals

SGM Odds: 3.50 at Sportsbet


Brisbane vs. Port Adelaide

Saturday, July 5 – Gabba

Jimmy’s Prediction: Brisbane by 18

The reigning premiers had the bye at the worst time possible. They had just delivered their best performance all year, and made people remember why they won the flag last year.

Ports strong win over Carlton showed us again why they are the most volatile club in the country. Not that anyone doubted them winning, but they looked at their best and their fast midfield and Georgiades up forward made them look like a Premiership team!

Still, the only ones out of this duo that are actually premiers, are Brisbane. And after being on cruise control all year, I think this game will show us that they’ve finally made their move.

Brisbane by a few.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Brisbane to Win
1.21 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Brisbane to win

  • Willie Rioli 2+ goals

  • Cam Rayner 1+ goals

  • Over 168.5 points
  • Mitch Georgiades 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 14.01 at Ladbrokes

The Machine’s Prediction: Brisbane by 24

The Machine’s Tips:

Brisbane to Win
1.24 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Lachie Neale 30+ disposals

  • Charlie Cameron 2+ goals

  • Connor Rozee 25+ disposals

  • Zac Bailey 2+ goals

SGM Odds: The Machine will provide odds closer to the game.


St Kilda vs. Hawthorn

Saturday, July 5 – Marvel Stadium

Jimmy’s Prediction: Hawthorn by 28

Normally I think Hawthorn winning is as bad Collingwood, however I am looking forward to them belting the Saints.

The Hawks looked back to their best against the Roos on the weekend it Tassie. Albeit, it was the Kangaroos, but that is the same team that drew to Brisbane there 2 months ago.

The Saints nearly got lucky against Finalsmantle in Perth on the weekend, but decided to fall asleep in the last quarter. The Saints are severely missing King up forward, and are going to struggle against the well rounded Hawks.

Hawthorn comfortably in the end.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Hawthorn Line (-18.5)
1.90 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Hawthorn to win

  • St Kilda 1st half line (+9.5)

  • Under 165.5 points

  • Mitch Owens 2+ goals

  • Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 25+ disposals

SGM Odds: 27.48 at Ladbrokes

The Machine’s Prediction: St Kilda by 10

The Machine’s Tips:

St Kilda to Win
3.20 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Jack Steele 25+ disposals

  • James Sicily 20+ disposals

  • Mitch Owens 2+ goals

  • Jai Newcombe 25+ disposal

SGM Odds: 31.25 at Sportsbet


Sydney vs. Fremantle

Sunday, July 6 – SCG

Jimmy’s Prediction: Sydney by 6

The Swans are looking a hell of a lot better lately, with Gulden back in the team and their superstar Heeney kicking bags – but they have left their run home too little too late. They should probably start focusing a/ getting better next year, and b/ fixing their country 2s of football surface. 

Prime example of a team that turned their season around, Freo are looking pretty sitting 6th, but also equalling 3rd placed Adelaide on points. They nearly had a slip up against the Saints which would’ve been detrimental for their finals campaign. They’ve got a pretty tough run home with 4 of their 8 games against top 8 teams.

This is a worrisome game for the Heave Ho, Sydney are looking dangerous and Freo did get the jitters this time last year and missed out on finals. I think those jitters are going to come back to haunt them, and they’re going to struggle outside of Perth and overestimate their ability against the Swans. 

Sydney in a cracker.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Sydney to Win
1.59 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Sydney to win

  • Patrick Voss 2+ goals

  • Callum Mills 25+ disposals

  • Jye Amiss 2+ goals

  • Errol Gulden 25+ disposals

SGM Odds: 58.20 at Ladbrokes

The Machine’s Prediction: Sydney by 16

The Machine’s Tips:

Sydney to Win
1.59 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Errol Gulden 25+ disposals

  • Isaac Heeney 2+ goals

  • Caleb Serong 25+ disposals

  • Andrew Brayshaw 25+ disposals

SGM Odds: 7.25 at Sportsbet


Adelaide vs. Melbourne

Sunday, July 6 – Adelaide Oval

Jimmy’s Prediction: Adelaide by 48

The Crows are leading 3 other teams also on 40 points with their high percentage, and I think this week will just further the gap. 

Radelaide unsurprisingly smoked the Tigers last week at the G, with defender Michalanney adding a versatility string to his bow and joining the elite group of Adelaide players who kick bags.

Melbourne fought well enough against Gold Coast, up there also, but their 5 wins may have just been an anomaly as they have reverted back to their form at the start of the year – and the faux love definitely fading. The Dees have a pretty nice month ahead of them with many winnable games, but they can let this one go through the keeper.

Adelaide to increase their percentage.

Jimmy’s Tips:

Adelaide Line (-24.5)
1.90 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Adelaide line (-25.5)

  • Over 170.5 points

  • Bayley Fritsch 3+ goals

  • Jake Melksham + goals

  • Kysaiah Pickett 2+ goals

SGM Odds: 91.69 at Ladbrokes

The Machine’s Prediction: Melbourne by 12

The Machine’s Tips:

Melbourne to Win
4.10 at Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

  • Christian Petracca 25+ disposals

  • Bayley Fritsch 2+ goals

  • Jordan Dawson 25+ disposals

  • Rory Laird 25+ disposals

SGM Odds: 15.25 at Sportsbet

Latest Tips & News

Loading latest posts…

Discover more from Expert Footy Tips

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading