Round 11 NRL Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

Cronulla got brought back to earth a bit last week by Souths, but the week before that they absolutely put Wests to the sword, so it still feels more like a decent side having an off night than one falling in a heap. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, got worked over by the Dolphins and once that game turned, it really turned. They’re starting to look a little bit shaky now, and that’s not ideal heading into Magic Round against a side that should be filthy after last week.

I still trust the Sharks a lot more in this sort of bounce-back spot. Canterbury can make games ugly, but Cronulla feel more likely to settle, get on top through the middle, and actually finish the job.

Souths bounced back properly last week and looked a lot more like themselves. After the week before turned into a bit of a mess, they were far more controlled and dangerous with the ball. The Dolphins were excellent too and keep looking like a side that deserves to be taken seriously now, not just one that pinches games with a bit of chaos and speed out wide.

This is one of the better hit-outs of the round because both sides come in with form, but I still lean Souths. Their attack has a bit more class when it clicks, and I trust them a touch more in the big moments.

Wests got absolutely belted last week, and that’s the problem with them. They can show a bit of life one week, then the next week look completely out of their depth once the game gets away from them. Manly, on the other hand, have looked a lot more serious lately. They pushed Penrith the week before and then gave Brisbane a proper touch-up, so they’re looking much more like a serious side than one that just pops up when Turbo feels frisky.

Magic Round can always throw up weird games, so I get why you’ve kept the margin tighter. But on current form, Manly just look like the more settled, more dangerous, and more trustworthy side.

The Roosters keep looking like a side that’s enjoying itself, which is usually bad news for whoever cops them next. They’ve now strung together a few strong performances and look polished right across the park. The Cowboys are still doing Cowboys things, which is entertaining enough, but they’re also making life harder for themselves than they need to.

That’s the difference here. North Queensland can score points and keep themselves in games, but the Roosters just feel cleaner and far less likely to cough up control once they’ve got it.

Parramatta jagged a good win last week, but they’re still hard to trust because every time it looks like they’ve sorted themselves out, they usually follow it with something dumb. Melbourne finally stopped embarrassing themselves and looked more like a functional football side again, which was badly needed after that horror stretch.

This one has danger game written all over it, because neither side exactly screams consistency, but I still lean Melbourne. They’ve got more class, and if the game tightens up, I trust them more than I trust the Eels not to do something stupid.

Gold Coast looked like Gold Coast again last time out. A few nice moments, a bit of spark here and there, then once the game got serious they were second best. Newcastle, meanwhile, put the Dragons away early and looked like a side actually building a bit of confidence now instead of just teasing it.

That’s why this feels one of the easier calls of the round. The Knights have more strike, more belief, and a lot more reason to be trusted at the minute.

The Warriors had the bye at a good time and come in fresh after banking some solid wins before the break. Brisbane, on the other hand, have suddenly started wobbling. They were well off it against Manly, and that came after already being handled by the Roosters.

The Broncos have enough talent to make this awkward, but the Warriors just look a bit steadier at the moment. They don’t always do it pretty, but they’ve been doing enough, and that usually counts for plenty in these tighter games.

Penrith keep doing Penrith things. They don’t need to be spectacular for very long, they just settle into the grind, take control, and suffocate you. The Dragons, meanwhile, are coming in off another rough one, and before that they copped an even worse hiding.

This is a brutal matchup for them because Penrith are the worst possible side to run into when you’re low on confidence and leaking points. Unless the Panthers turn up half asleep, this should get ugly.