Round 9 AFL Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

After beating the Dogs in another proper belter, the Heave Ho got to enjoy a quick little sit at the top before the Swans pinched it back. Fremantle still got the chocolates, but the Dogs had plenty more bite than expected and nearly nicked it late. That also makes it two games in a few weeks now where Freo have looked just a touch more mortal than the ladder suggests. Carlton nearly pinched one over there, the Dogs nearly did the same, and you can feel the first proper slip looming around the corner.

The Hawks would not be feeling crash hot either. A draw with the Pies is not disastrous, but it did keep the same questions hanging around. Are Hawthorn genuinely elite, or just very polished when they get their own game going? They had 62 inside 50s to 34 and 39 clearances to 23 against Collingwood, so they did plenty right, but not winning after that sort of control leaves a bit of a stink.

This is a brutal ask though. Heading over to the Frefortress when they’re still banking wins is not exactly ideal. Hawthorn are absolutely good enough to take it, but Freo at home have earned a bit more trust than the Hawks on the road.

I’d love to see the whiteboard for this one. Probably just leave the McKay cell as is.

The Lions enjoyed a massive goal-kicking fill-up against the Dons last week, which came as a surprise to absolutely nobody. They kicked 143, Charlie looked back to his best, and Brisbane continue to look like the clearest premiership favourite when they’re switched on. The loss to Melbourne now just looks like one of those little reminders they occasionally need before going back to flattening someone.

Carlton, meanwhile, actually looked half-competent against the Saints for a while, which in itself is progress. Then they did the usual thing and vanished after half-time, eventually copping a 39-point hiding that looked every bit as ugly as it felt. They’ve now had a few weeks of looking less hopeless, but less hopeless is not exactly what you want to take into the Gabba against this Brisbane side.

Up at the Gabba against the Brisbane Flyons of late, this one is a no-brainer. Carlton will have moments, then Brisbane will remember who they are and step on their throat.

Port showed some serious ticker in an absolute belter of a Showdown last week. They nearly stole it, then somehow the robber got robbed. One-point losses in those games sting more than most, but they also tend to tell you a fair bit. Horne-Francis and Butters were enormous again, and those two are so good they can make Port look elite all by themselves, which is both exciting and deeply inconvenient when trying to work out if Port are actually any good.

Speaking of ticker, the Dogs were relentless in another weapon of a game that gave half the country a headache flicking between screens. They lost to Fremantle by 12, but with English back and Bont still doing Bont things, they looked much more like a side that can hang with anyone when their structure is right. There’s still a bit to monitor there too, with Bont reportedly managing knee soreness, so they’re not exactly humming at 100 percent.

This has goals all over it. Georgiades could absolutely dine out if Port get enough supply, and the midfield battle should be proper chaos. I like the Dogs as a side overall, but at Adelaide Oval, with Port coming off a brutal one-point Showdown loss, this feels like the sort of spot where they come out foaming.

If anyone was still wondering whether North are the real deal this year, the last fortnight probably answered it. GWS beat them by 7 in Round 7, then Geelong turned a decent contest into a 49-point win last week. North have absolutely improved, and miles from where they’ve been, but they’re still not in the same conversation as the better sides when those teams actually lock in for four quarters.

Sydney, on the other hand, have become deeply annoying again. They pumped the Dogs by 66 in Round 7, then backed it up by putting 131 on Melbourne in a game where everything looked to be gelling. Even missing key players, they’re humming, and when Charlie works out where the big sticks are, it gets ugly quickly.

North will run and scrap and probably make it interesting for a bit. But Sydney are cleaner, deeper, and far more dangerous when the game opens up.

If the average Essendon supporter had their own whiteboard, it would be one hell of a lot more brutal than Brisbane’s. Another 50-plus point loss just kept proving the point that the Melbourne win really was a reverse mulligan. They got smashed by Collingwood in Round 7, then Brisbane hung 143 on them in Round 8. At some point it stops being a blip and starts being the whole personality.

GWS are still not having the season everyone thought they would, but they’ve at least shown signs of life. They beat North in a proper scrap two weeks ago, and while Gold Coast got them last week, they were still in that game for long enough to remind you they’re not completely broken. They’re just a bit wonky. Essendon are much more than a bit wonky.

At home, against this version of the Bombers, this feels like the exact sort of game the Giants need to belt someone and remind people they still exist.

TDK can probably feel a lot better about leaving the Blues after last weekend. The Saints were clearly the better side, and while they can actually run out a game, it’s still not the sort of win that should have anyone carrying on like they’ve solved footy. Before that, they had also flogged West Coast by 101, which is nice, but so does anyone with a pulse. They’ve improved, but the quality of opposition still matters.

Gold Coast, meanwhile, are doing a pretty decent impression of a side trying to forget everyone started taking them seriously. They’ve dropped three of their last four, and the one win in that stretch was only a nine-point scrape over Essendon. They beat GWS by 20 last week, which at least stopped the bleeding, but they still don’t look anywhere near as scary as they did a month ago.

Still, this is one of those games where home conditions, cleaner midfield use and a bit more top-end talent should be enough. The Suns are wobbling, but the Saints are still not the sort of side I trust away from home in the NT.

Geelong continue to be the most annoyingly mean team at home, except this week they’re not actually at home, which almost makes them more annoying. They bounced back hard after the Port loss by putting 135 on North and generally reminding everyone that when they get the game on their terms they can still look miles ahead of most sides. Max Holmes, Stewart and the rest of that smug little machine are still humming.

The Pies, to their credit, continue to fight like absolute rats. They could’ve lost to Hawthorn about seven different ways last week, yet still hung in long enough to walk away with a draw. They were also coming off belting Essendon by 77 the week before, so they’ve still got plenty of life in them. But it does feel a bit like last year, where they keep asking enormous questions of the same core over and over and hope the answer stays yes forever.

More Geelong supporters live in Melbourne anyway, and the Cats seem to enjoy the G just fine, so there’s no real edge there. Daicos will get his touches because he always does, but across the ground I still trust Geelong a little bit more in this matchup.

Melbourne had a bad time of it last week, but not a disastrous one. They kicked 114 against Sydney and still lost by 17, after smashing Richmond by 54 the week before. That’s a pretty decent reminder that the Dees are still dangerous when the game lets them move the ball the way they want. Kozzy has been electric, Gawn is still doing Gawn things, and even when they wobble, they don’t usually wobble for too long against bad sides.

West Coast absolutely bottled one of the few chances of a win last week, losing by 11 to Richmond in a game that felt more WAFL than AFL. They at least made a contest of it, which was a nice change after being belted by 101 the week before, but “less embarrassing than last week” is not exactly finals form.

Taking the long flight over and sitting in the Dees’ lap at their favourite weird little timeslot is not going to help them either. Melbourne should recalibrate here and belt them.

The Tiges finally entered the winners list after heading west and breaking the drought. Fair play to them, because they’d started to look like one of those sides that might genuinely forget how to win. Before that they’d lost 12 straight, so nobody should be pretending one win suddenly means the rebuild has sprouted wings.

Adelaide absolutely got out of jail last week in the most epic last 60 seconds of footy this year, pinching the Showdown by a point after being belted by Brisbane the week before. They’re still just outside the top group and badly need to bank the ones they’re supposed to bank, especially after a few weeks of looking shakier than they should. They’ll also be without Taylor Walker and Jordon Butts until after the Round 12 bye, which doesn’t help, but this is still a game they should own.

The Crows definitely aren’t the same side they were last year, but luckily for them Richmond are still Richmond. This is the sort of game Adelaide should use as a confidence booster and percentage grab, not a sweat.