Round 12 AFL Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

St Kilda got put back in their box by Freo. Not a disaster, but it was a reminder that “up and coming” still has a long commute before it becomes “actually good”. They’ve got structure, they’ve got some bite, but against proper sides they still look a bit short.

Hawthorn’s win over Adelaide was exactly what they needed. It wasn’t pretty, but after a rough few weeks, banking a tight one matters. That’s the sort of game that steadies a side before people start writing think pieces about whether the wheels are wobbling.

Hawthorn’s response last week was more convincing than St Kilda’s effort out west. At Marvel, the Saints will absolutely make this annoying, and they will knock off a top 6 side at some stage. May as well be now.

Carlton have found a pulse, which is inconvenient for everyone who had already started preparing the autopsy. Two wins since the coach change gives them something to cling to, and the Port win was probably their sharpest patch of footy in a while. The midfield looked harder, cleaner, and less like it was operating under protest.

Geelong, though, are in that deeply irritating Geelong phase where they look cooked, then suddenly look like they’ve been quietly building a ladder in the shed. They handled Sydney at GMHBA, Bailey Smith went nuclear after half-time, and the Cats looked like a side that knows exactly when to turn the screw.

Carlton’s bounce is real enough to make this competitive. But Geelong’s form has more substance behind it. Cats just.

Sydney got done at GMHBA, but that’s hardly the end of the world. Most sides go down there and leave looking like they’ve been forced through a weird regional tax audit. The Swans were beaten by a good side in a tough spot, not exposed as frauds.

Richmond beating Essendon was good for morale, and Dreamtime wins always carry a bit extra. But let’s not pretend beating this version of Essendon suddenly turns Richmond into a functioning finals threat. It was a solid win in a spoon-adjacent fight, not a rebirth.

At the SCG, this is a very different assignment. Sydney’s speed and ball use should be too much, and Richmond’s back half is going to spend a lot of time doing emergency paperwork.

Brisbane need a response, because what happened against GWS was not just a loss. It was a footballing incident. The Giants piled on a record-breaking third quarter and made Brisbane look like they’d left their entire defensive system in checked luggage. They looked slow, clumsy and like disengaged witches hats in that third quarter. That’s the kind of performance that either wakes a side up or starts a proper wobble.

Fremantle just keep rolling. They dealt with St Kilda out west without needing to do anything too heroic, which is normally the sign of a side that knows what it is. They defend well, they control the middle, and they’re no longer doing that old Freo thing where every promising season comes with a trapdoor.

The Lions need to reset after the belting, and the Flagmantle winning record cannot go on forever. I think the former premiers will come out swinging.

The Dogs beating Melbourne was a proper result, not just another weird Marvel flicker. They were challenged late, nearly coughed it up, and still found a way to hold on. That matters for a side that has spent half the year looking like it might accidentally trip over its own talent.

Collingwood beat West Coast on Pendles’ record night, but it came with a fair bit of emotional tax. The milestone was huge, Nick Daicos was enormous, and they got the job done, but the injuries to Darcy Moore and Jamie Elliott are a horrible little cloud over the whole thing.

This should start tight in the Brownlow Medal bout of Bont v Daicos. Collingwood will scrap because they always do, but the Dogs look a bit healthier in the middle of the ground and have more scoring punch if the game opens up. Bulldogs, but not by heaps.

Melbourne nearly pinched it against the Dogs after being in trouble early, which keeps the glass-half-full crowd alive. The pressure is still there, the fight is still there, but they’re not quite putting four quarters together. Very Melbourne. Very dramatic. Very annoying.

GWS, meanwhile, continue to be the biggest pain in the ass team to tip for or against, and just produced one of the most ridiculous quarters of footy the league has seen. Fourteen unanswered goals in a third quarter against Brisbane is not “good form”, it’s someone discovering a cheat code and refusing to give it back. The catch is they also came out of it with injury concerns, because heaven forbid anything be clean.

GWS just showed a ceiling Melbourne probably can’t match right now, and Traeger Park makes this weird enough for either to win. Melbourne will be emotionally taxed, but will want to come out swinging and GWS are just so untrustworthy. Melbourne, not confidently.

West Coast pushed Collingwood hard on a milestone night where the entire MCG was basically dressed as a Pendlebury shrine. I thought they would for half the game, but kudos to them for making the whole night competitive. They’re still not good-good, but at Optus they’re no longer an automatic percentage donation.

Essendon lost Dreamtime to Richmond and lost Andrew McGrath to a badly broken jaw, because apparently the season needed another kick while already lying in traffic. Also ironic, because this game will probably solidify another #1 draft pick for the Bombers. The effort is there in patches, but the Dons are still finding ways to turn winnable games into sad content.

At Optus, West Coast should fancy this. They’ve got more belief at home, Essendon are battered, and this is exactly the sort of game the Eagles need to win if they want to convince anyone the rebuild has left the driveway.