Round 1 NRL Tips 2026 | SGM Bets & Predictions

What a way to kick off NRL in Vegas for our US counterparts, than by showing off our best with Newcastle – who are on track to lose their 10th game in a row.

The Cowboys are hardly a formidable adversary, although they finished the year playing solid footy and looked far more settled.

“Whatever happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas” – except the 2 points, they’ll come right back with them. And unless the Cowboys completely lose their marbles with a casino that isn’t The Ville – they should get this done easily.

The Bulldogs took a big step last year finishing third, but still got knocked out in straight sets and just don’t quite look like they fit in the top 4 yet.

The Dragons regressed to in another season of mediocrity, with very little consistency across full games.

Although the Dragons put up a good fight in their last hit out last year in enemy territory against the Bulldogs – I don’t think they’ll blow as much smoke this time around. Start the queue, Bulldogs fans planning September.

Melbourne don’t rebuild, because they think the jobs already done at half time. They’ll be filthy at themselves for last years Granny, and the poor Eels will be their whipping boy.

Parramatta did have their moments last year and had a few notable wins, but mostly was an even juggle of beating up weak sides, and getting done by the strong.

Although I don’t think it’ll be Deja Vu of last years absolute dog walk – Storm should still seal it comfortably.

The Wahs had a solid turn around last year after their 2034 drop off, but still didn’t take any scalps when it mattered in September.

The Roosters had a very similar situation, but since 2019 they’ve been sitting like a non-threatening deck chair within the finals.

The Warriors will ride the home ground advantage gravy train – but I like the Roosters to control the tempo, and to be one to look out for this year.

In what could easily be an early view of the last game we will see this year – Brisbane enter 10 feet tall as defending premiers after calming the Storm in the Grand Final, and after finally delivering on their talent.

Penrith couldn’t be too upset missing their fifth in a row – but still four straight titles makes them the standard mentally.

The Broncos will attack early and hard to put their stamp on 2026 after an aggressive late run last year. With the home town backing, they should get the W.

Cronulla were pretty reliable last season, but had a pretty easy back end draw which gave them more credibility.

The Titans on the other had, are still very far off changing the world, or even the bottom four of the ladder at this rate.

These are the games the Sharks really like to throw their weight around, and at home I think it’ll be an early taste of another hard year for the Titans.

Manly had another year of hovering in and out of the 8 – but not following through. With Daly Cherry Evans gone, more weight is on the chronically injured Turbos shoulders.

After being an absolute fence sitter on finals for years, Canberra had a stellar year as finishing as minor premiers – only to lose form at the wrong time and go out in straight sets.

The Raiders will have been thinking all offseason about the 1 point loss to Brisbane and what could have been – and will come out hard in a statement.

You’re only as good as your last game – and The Dolphins absolutely pantsed Canberra at the end of 2025 – and were the beginning of their downfall.

And while the Dolphins have been on the rise since inception – Rabbitohs have been falling into bottom 4 irrelevance equally as fast in the last few years.

I can see this result waving a new round of inspiration for the Dolphins in 2026 – which I think is definitely worth getting around, but hardly worth taking too legitimately against the South.