AFL Tips

AFL Premiership Betting Tips 2026 | Predictions & Previews for Every Team

Our early 2026 AFL Premiership tip is unanimously Brisbane, and some bold predictions for the Top 6 including Sydney, Bulldogs & Fremantle.

Who will Win the 2026 AFL Premiership

Will the Lions triple up? Have Hawthorn missed their chance? Or can Gold Coast finally etch their names in history? Bi-monthly, Jimmy and The Machine will share their thoughts on who they think will win the AFL Premiership this season.

AFL Premiership Odds

Jimmy
Brisbane
To win the AFL Premiership
4.75 at Ladbrokes
Odds updated 1/3/26
The Machine
Brisbane
To win the AFL Premiership
4.75 at Ladbrokes
Odds updated 1/3/26
Jimmy’s Breakdown (4/2/2026)

Unfortunately, I think we’ll be seeing a repeat of the threepeat in 2026. The big cats looked in third gear for all of 2025, yet were at the pointy end for most of the year — and then absolutely smacked the house cats in the granny.

It’s almost unfair to have the list and midfield depth that they have, especially with the Ashcroft boys that were gifted to them and will only be better this year. But now, with the free agency inclusions of Sam Draper and Oscar Allen — it actually is unfair.

Draper and Allen will be key pieces to their puzzle in 2026, with Allen mixed with young gun Morris wreaking havoc up forward. Draper, who looks like he’s been focusing on chest daily after doing his achilles, should hit the ground running in the big O’s former spot — although a recent foot injury from carrying that big frame around might impede.

Some other strong ones to watch this season will be Sydney, GWS and Gold Coast, who all did well in the trade and draft period. I think it’ll be a long season down in Melbourne, but at this stage, I can’t see anyone beating Brisbane when they’re on song.

Brisbane was paying 5.00 at Ladbrokes to win the AFL Premiership at time of writing (4/2/2026).
The Machine’s Breakdown (4/2/2026)

Brisbane is my early pick to win the 2026 AFL Premiership because they tick the boring boxes that actually win flags: proven finals system, elite midfield, composure in tight games, and a list still in its prime window. The market agrees — Brisbane open favourites at $5.00.

They’ve already shown they can do it back-to-back, winning the 2025 Grand Final convincingly and proving their ceiling isn’t theoretical. When it gets hot, Brisbane get cleaner — that’s premiership footy.

There are reasons people will try to talk themselves out of Brisbane. Leadership shifts and list changes grab headlines, but Brisbane’s edge is depth and continuity. They don’t need reinvention — just health.

Gold Coast are the sexy improver. Geelong and Hawthorn are right there, but Hawthorn already have a big early injury concern. Sydney profile as a spike team.

At this time of year, the best premiership pick is usually the least exciting one.

That’s Brisbane.

Brisbane was paying 5.00 at Ladbrokes to win the AFL Premiership at time of writing (4/2/2026).

AFL End of Season Ladder Prediction 2026

Our ladder recommendation as of 7/2/2026.

Pos Club P Pts W–L–D
1 Brisbane 23 72 18–5–0
2 Sydney 23 72 18–5–0
3 Adelaide 23 68 17–6–0
4 Fremantle 23 68 17–6–0
5 Western Bulldogs 23 68 17–6–0
6 Geelong 24 68 17–7–0
7 Gold Coast 23 64 16–7–0
8 Hawthorn 23 64 16–7–0
9 GWS 23 60 15–8–0
10 St Kilda 23 60 15–8–0
11 North Melbourne 23 44 11–12–0
12 Richmond 23 32 8–15–0
13 Port Adelaide 23 24 6–17–0
14 West Coast 23 24 6–17–0
15 Collingwood 23 20 5–18–0
16 Essendon 23 12 3–20–0
17 Carlton 23 8 2–21–0
18 Melbourne 23 4 1–22–0

Early Prediction for each AFL Team in 2026

As of 7/2/2026.

1. Brisbane

Projected: 18–5–0

The Lions have the best midfield depth, and win games even when they’re “meh”. If they stay reasonably healthy, and minus more offseason headlines – they’ll finish top-two on cruise control.

TO WIN THE PREMIERSHIP 5.00

2. Sydney

Projected: 18–5–0

The picking up Charlie Curnow is a massive inclusion for the Swans, and really what they were lacking in 2025. With Gulden and Chad hitting him on the tit week in, week out – they’ll be first half of 2024 scary.

TO MAKE THE GRAND FINAL 5.00

3. Adelaide

Projected: 17–6–0

Adelaide were a disappointment in the finals last year, but I’m tipping they’ve matured enough in the offseason to do more than just bully weak sides, and to keep their head level in tight games – mainly under sledging conditions.

TO FINISH TOP 4 2.25

4. Fremantle

Projected: 17–6–0

The Dockers will be hungry to go again this year, after a heartbreaking loss to the Suns in pretty much the only decent finals game last year. They were solid in the back half of the year, and their best 22 is largely unchanged.

TO FINISH TOP 4 3.50

5. Western Bulldogs

Projected: 17–6–0

The Dogs have arguably the best list on paper, and the best captain, and would be a travesty if they don’t show some promise with it. If they learn to actually play the first 3/4 of the game, instead of just chasing tail aggressively in the last quarter – they’ll finish high.

TO FINISH TOP 6 6.00

6. Geelong

Projected: 17–7–0

Never a doubt of Geelong finishing in the Top 6. Although the Lions absolutely pantsed them in the Granny, Geelong are just always a force and Chris Scott always knows how to bring out the best of his players. However, I can see them slightly plateauing this year, while other teams will rise.

TO FINISH TOP 6 1.75

7. Gold Coast

Projected: 16–7–0

The Suns are well past being cute contenders and are now a serious threat. They stepped up past the hurdle of them not winning away from home last year, and have recruited Trac and Ugle-Hagan. While Trac should slide in nicely, Ugle-Hagan might be a wildcard – but we all know the potential is there.

TO FINISH TOP 10 1.12

8. Hawthorn

Projected: 16–7–0

The Hawks still have that annoying smug confidence where they play like they’ve got four Brownlows each. But they also have weeks where the kids remember they’re kids. Merrett would’ve brought some solid on-field leadership, so the volatile emotions may still be plenty. Also, injury prone Will Day is already out for half the season – and the Hawks are much better with him.

TO FINISH TOP 10 1.04

9. GWS

Projected: 15–8–0

The Giants will belt someone by 60, then lose an easy win game. The talent is top-four level, the week-to-week discipline is much less than that. However, they are also mostly list unchanged, with the inclusion of Clarry who’s been given a lifeline- and first looks are that he is making the most of that opportunity.

TO FINISH TOP 10 1.06

10. St Kilda

Projected: 15–8–0

The Saints are taking their chance at buying a Premiership, and while they will definitely win a few extra games and have their painful supporters come out of the woods for a few more wins – I don’t see them changing the world just yet.

TO FINISH TOP 10 1.50

11. North Melbourne

Projected: 11–12–0

North are the slowest improving team of all time, and this is about time they push through to the next stage, or their stars may start losing interest. Still, this feels like another season of competitive losses rather than consistent wins. They’ll push good sides, then fall away when the game tightens.

12. Richmond

Projected: 8–15–0

The Tiges are well and truly in rebuild mode, and I think this will be a good year to bask in them being average, before they start to dominate in a few years time. They’re get it over and done with approach to this should be studied by some of the teams below. Also exciting to watch a few of their youngins blossom more, especially Dusty 2.0.

13. Port Adelaide

Projected: 6–17–0

The Port basically have a free pass this year to trial some new players and positions, and work out how to attack this rebuild which everyone is expecting will happen – but Kochy refuses to bring any attention to.

14. West Coast

Projected: 6–17–0

The Eagles will be better than recent years, but not good enough to escape the bottom half. Hopefully there’ll be some good signs over in the West with Harley reaching potential and seeing what the number one Duursma has to offer.

15. Collingwood

Projected: 5–18–0

Some of the old man Pies have left the building, and not much has reentered in their wake. While priding themselves as a plug and play team, going by their form at the end of the season and with the exits, I think that phrase will need to add pray onto the end of it.

TO FINISH BOTTOM 4 21.00

16. Essendon

Projected: 3–20–0

The main thing Essendon can do this year, is let the players play games only, and don’t let them anywhere near that cursed eyesore on Melrose Drive. With Nic Martin already on the end of season injury list – it’s going to be another long year.

TO FINISH BOTTOM 4 1.50

17. Carlton

Projected: 2–21–0

The Blues will also be at the bottom end, and not that I think they are inferior to Essendon – but going by the Ladder Predictor this is where I have them ending up, as they do have a tougher draw. And with the mass exodus of stars including Curnow and TDK – it’ll take some trial and error to see where their inclusions will pick up the pieces.

TO FINISH BOTTOM 4 3.00

18. Melbourne

Projected: 1–22–0

The Dee’s are in for a tough year at the start of their rebuild, after losing their dynamic midfield for the past decade in Clarry and Trac. Their major pick ups are veterans with only a year or so left in them with Mihocek and Steele – but they will certainly offer some guidance for the youngins coming in, and definitely contribute to this rebuild.

TO FINISH BOTTOM 4 2.50

Historical AFL Premiership Tips

Follow our AFL Premiership predictions across the season and previous years. See if we are ahead of the game, or if we’re complete mugs.

Jimmy’s Pick:

Carlton
10.00 at Bet Right
19/2/2025

It’s been a tough slog for the Blues supporters of late. Looking primed for glory last year, and then riddled with a plethora of injuries, to only get knocked out the first round and against Brisbane.

Brisbane are probably the obvious choice after how electrifying they were at the end of the year, and as far as talent goes, I think Carlton are the only match up.

Collingwood are far from back, Hawthorn are just a fad and Sydney’s second half of 2024 was woeful. 

I also think Freo and GWS are ones to look out for, but I think it’s finally the Blues time.

Jimmy’s Pick:

Western Bulldogs
7.00 at Sportsbet
24/5/2025

In an injury riddled season for nearly every team, the Dogs have been the scariest losers. They have been missing minimum 3 of arguably their top 6 players in every single game this year and have lost 5 games. 

Out of their 5 losses, the biggest deficit has only been 21 points, and only 1 of these games was a team not in the top 6 (Freo, at Perth).

Now it’s incredibly wishful thinking to assume once all their stars are back none will get injured, but if they get all their players back fit and a few games to all blend together – they are going to very difficult to beat. 

While Weightman is gone for the year, Rylee West has stood up strong as their small fierce goal sneak. With Sam Darcy and Treloar coming back soon, the Dogs could get on a roll and start dominating, and getting their momentum up right at the right time of the season.

Thank the footy gods Bailey Smith left and Jamarra is taking time off – otherwise the Dogs would have been unstoppable.

Jimmy’s Pick:

Western Bulldogs
26.00 at Sportsbet
29/7/2025

When your stock price drops, do you sell? Absolutely not. You buy more!

Going against all reason, statistics and odds – I’m doubling down on the Doggies to steal this years flag. 

It’s true, the Bulldogs have been less than impressive against top 8 teams this year, and are currently 1-7 against the best. While that certainly might seem worrisome, it’s worth remembering 3 of these losses were at the start of the year when the Dogs were understaffed and without the Bont. And out of these 8 games, the Dogs are in deficit of -72 points. 

Hawthorn have also played 8 games against the same teams and are 3-5, with a -75 deficit. Yet placed 4th on the ladder. As an Essendon supporter, I am aware that percentage early on means a lot more than points.

The Dogs are always in games and in the last two games against Adelaide and Brisbane – if they pulled their finger out 5 minutes earlier, they probably would have won. If they continue to put their pieces together and realise how to defend – there’s no reason they can’t go all the way.

The Machine’s Pick:

Brisbane
7.50 at Sportsbet
2/3/2025

After a stellar 2024 season, the Brisbane Lions are poised to continue their dominance in 2025. With a blend of experienced campaigners and emerging talent, their list is one of the most balanced in the competition. The Lions’ midfield, led by stars like Lachie Neale and Hugh McCluggage, provides consistent delivery to a potent forward line.

Their home ground advantage at the Gabba has been formidable, and their ability to win on the road has improved markedly. Coach Chris Fagan’s game plan emphasizes fast ball movement and defensive pressure, making them a tough opponent for any team.

While teams like Hawthorn and GWS Giants are strong contenders, Brisbane’s consistency and depth give them the edge. Their pre-season form has been impressive, indicating they’re ready to hit the ground running.

The Machine’s Pick:

Geelong
7.00 at Sportsbet
27/5/2025

Based on current form, fixture analysis, and team dynamics, I believe the Geelong Cats are best placed to win the 2025 AFL Premiership.

Fixture Advantage: Geelong’s run home is the most favorable of any top contender. After their Round 16 bye, they face only one current top-eight team across the final eight rounds. That includes two matches against a bottom-four Richmond side, giving them a great chance to secure a top-two finish and home finals. A strong back half of the season with relatively easier games often sets up premiership runs, and the Cats are in prime position.

Team Form and Depth: The Cats have found a balanced, flexible lineup in 2025. Bailey Smith has added burst and polish to a strong midfield, Tom Stewart continues to marshal the backline, and Jeremy Cameron is back to his damaging best up forward. Crucially, Geelong’s role players are stepping up too — their structure doesn’t rely on one or two stars, but rather a full-22 buy-in. That kind of system wins finals.

Momentum and Experience: Geelong is timing its run well. Their experienced core — built on past premiership success — knows how to peak late in the season. With strong management of player workloads and a steady build in form, they look like a team gathering steam at the right time. Other contenders like Brisbane and Collingwood have tougher fixture runs and more injury concerns, making Geelong the most complete and strategically placed team to lift the cup in 2025.

The Machine’s Pick:

Collingwood
4.50 at Sportsbet
29/7/2025

I think Collingwood will win the 2025 premiership because they’ve consistently proven themselves the most complete and reliable side in the competition. They’re sitting on top of the ladder with strong percentage, and they’ve won the big games—tight, physical battles where premiership credentials are tested. Their King’s Birthday win over Melbourne, for example, showed their ability to handle pressure. They’ve got composure, depth, leadership, and the finals experience to get it done again. Craig McRae has them playing a hardened but selfless brand of football that stacks up in September.

What gives them the edge over Brisbane and Adelaide is consistency and big-game resilience. Brisbane still has firepower and midfield strength, but without some key forward pieces from last year’s flag win, they’re just a notch below. Adelaide is the bolter—great percentage and smart recruiting—but they’re still learning how to win when it matters most. Collingwood has the system, the mindset, and the belief. If they stay healthy, they’re still the team to beat.

Stay Updated on the AFL Premiership Contenders

Every second month (or so), we’ll update this page with fresh predictions from Jimmy and The Machine. Be sure to follow regularly and see how each tipster’s picks evolve as the season progresses, and who will come out on top!

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